• Employment Trends Index: 96.6
• Monthly Change: Down 1%
• Year-to-year Change: Down 18.6%

Technorati Tags: employment trends index, employment, employment trends, jobs

The Conference Board Employment Trends Index (ETI)™ Continues to Decline Sharply
Feb. 9, 2009

Source: The Conference Board

• Total Employment: 142,099,000
• Nonfarm Payroll Employment: 134,580,000
• Monthly Change: Down 598,000
• Unemployed Persons: 11,616,000
• Unemployment Rate: 7.6%
• Change: Down Up 0.4%

Technorati Tags: employment, situation, unemployment, report

THE EMPLOYMENT SITUATION: JANUARY 2009

Nonfarm payroll employment fell sharply in January (-598,000) and the unem-
ployment rate rose from 7.2 to 7.6 percent, the Bureau of Labor Statistics of
the U.S. Department of Labor reported today. Payroll employment has declined
by 3.6 million since the start of the recession in December 2007; about one-
half of this decline occurred in the past 3 months. In January, job losses
were large and widespread across nearly all major industry sectors.

Unemployment (Household Survey Data)

Both the number of unemployed persons (11.6 million) and the unemployment
rate (7.6 percent) rose in January. Over the past 12 months, the number of un-
employed persons has increased by 4.1 million and the unemployment rate has
risen by 2.7 percentage points. (See table A-1.)

The unemployment rate continued to trend upward in January for adult men
(7.6 percent), adult women (6.2 percent), whites (6.9 percent), blacks (12.6
percent), and Hispanics (9.7 percent). The jobless rate for teenagers was un-
changed at 20.8 percent. The unemployment rate for Asians was 6.2 percent in
January, not seasonally adjusted. (See tables A-1, A-2, and A-3.)

Among the unemployed, the number of job losers and persons who completed
temporary jobs increased to 7.0 million in January. This measure has grown
by 3.2 million during the last 12 months. (See table A-8.)

The number of long-term unemployed (those jobless for 27 weeks or more)
was little changed at 2.6 million in January. Over the past 12 months, the
number of long-term unemployed was up by 1.3 million. The number of persons
unemployed less than 5 weeks rose to 3.7 million in January. (See table A-9.)

Total Employment and the Labor Force (Household Survey Data)

The civilian labor force participation rate, at 65.5 percent in January, has
edged down in recent months. The employment-population ratio declined by 0.5
percentage point to 60.5 percent over the month, and by 2.4 percentage points
over the year. (See table A-1.)

The number of persons who worked part time for economic reasons (sometimes
referred to as involuntary part-time workers) was essentially unchanged in
January at 7.8 million; however, this measure was up by 3.1 million over the
past 12 months. Included in this category are persons who would like to work
full time but were working part time because their hours had been cut back or
because they were unable to find full-time jobs. (See table A-5.)

Persons Not in the Labor Force (Household Survey Data)

About 2.1 million persons (not seasonally adjusted) were marginally attached
to the labor force in January, about 400,000 more than 12 months earlier. These
individuals wanted and were available for work and had looked for a job sometime
in the prior 12 months. They were not counted as unemployed because they had not
searched for work in the 4 weeks preceding the survey. Among the marginally at-
tached, there were 734,000 discouraged workers in January, up by about 270,000
from a year earlier. Discouraged workers are persons not currently looking for
work because they believe no jobs are available for them. The other 1.4 million
persons marginally attached to the labor force in January had not searched for
work in the 4 weeks preceding the survey for reasons such as school attendance
or family responsibilities. (See table A-13.)

_____________________________________________________________________
| |
| Establishment and Household Data Changes |
| |
| The establishment survey data in this release have been revised as|
|a result of the annual benchmarking process and the updating of sea- |
|sonal adjustment factors. See the note beginning on page 4 for more |
|information on the revisions. |
| In addition, household survey data for January 2009 reflect up- |
|dated population estimates. See the note on page 5 for more inform- |
|ation. Also, January 2009 industry data shown in table A-11 of this |
|release have been converted to the 2007 Census Industry Classifica- |
|tion System. Historical data have not been revised. |
| |
_____________________________________________________________________

– 2 -

Table A. Major indicators of labor market activity, seasonally adjusted
(Numbers in thousands)
_______________________________________________________________________________
| | |
| Quarterly | |
| averages | Monthly data | Dec.-
Category |_________________|__________________________| Jan.
| | | | | | change
| III | IV | Nov. | Dec. | Jan. |
| 2008 | 2008 | 2008 | 2008 | 2009 |
_________________________|________|________|________|________|________|________
|
HOUSEHOLD DATA | Labor force status
|_____________________________________________________
| | | | | |
Civilian labor force ….| 154,650| 154,648| 154,620| 154,447| 153,716| (1)
Employment …………| 145,299| 144,046| 144,144| 143,338| 142,099| (1)
Unemployment ……….| 9,350| 10,602| 10,476| 11,108| 11,616| (1)
Not in labor force ……| 79,460| 80,177| 80,208| 80,588| 81,023| (1)
|________|________|________|________|________|________
|
| Unemployment rates
|_____________________________________________________
| | | | | |
All workers ………….| 6.0| 6.9| 6.8| 7.2| 7.6| 0.4
Adult men ………….| 5.8| 6.8| 6.7| 7.2| 7.6| .4
Adult women ………..| 5.0| 5.6| 5.6| 5.9| 6.2| .3
Teenagers ………….| 19.7| 20.7| 20.4| 20.8| 20.8| .0
White ……………..| 5.4| 6.3| 6.2| 6.6| 6.9| .3
Black or African | | | | | |
American …………| 10.7| 11.5| 11.3| 11.9| 12.6| .7
Hispanic or Latino | | | | | |
ethnicity ………..| 7.8| 8.9| 8.6| 9.2| 9.7| .5
|________|________|________|________|________|________
|
ESTABLISHMENT DATA(2) | Employment
|_____________________________________________________
| | | | | |
Nonfarm employment…….| 137,004|p135,762| 135,755|p135,178|p134,580| p-598
Goods-producing (3)….| 21,343| p20,814| 20,814| p20,564| p20,245| p-319
Construction ……..| 7,170| p6,953| 6,939| p6,853| p6,742| p-111
Manufacturing …….| 13,388| p13,068| 13,082| p12,920| p12,713| p-207
Service-providing (3)..| 115,661|p114,948| 114,941|p114,614|p114,335| p-279
Retail trade (4)…| 15,331| p15,129| 15,126| p15,043| p14,998| p-45
Professional and | | | | | |
business services .| 17,730| p17,494| 17,488| p17,382| p17,261| p-121
Education and health | | | | | |
services ……….| 18,932| p19,038| 19,044| p19,089| p19,143| p54
Leisure and | | | | | |
hospitality …….| 13,452| p13,351| 13,344| p13,313| p13,285| p-28
Government ……….| 22,543| p22,538| 22,543| p22,533| p22,539| p6
|________|________|________|________|________|________
|
| Hours of work (5)
|_____________________________________________________
| | | | | |
Total private ………..| 33.6| p33.4| 33.4| p33.3| p33.3| p0.0
Manufacturing ………| 40.8| p40.2| 40.2| p39.9| p39.8| p-.1
Overtime …………| 3.6| p3.2| 3.2| p3.0| p2.9| p-.1
|________|________|________|________|________|________
|
| Indexes of aggregate weekly hours (2002=100)(5)
|_____________________________________________________
| | | | | |
Total private ………..| 106.1| p104.1| 104.1| p103.3| p102.6| p-0.7
|________|________|________|________|________|________
|
| Earnings (5)
|_____________________________________________________
Average hourly earnings, | | | | | |
total private ………| $18.16| p$18.34| $18.34| p$18.41| p$18.46| p$0.05
Average weekly earnings, | | | | | |
total private ………| 610.90| p612.66| 612.56| p613.05| p614.72| p1.67
_________________________|________|________|________|________|________|________

1 Changes in household data levels are not shown due to the introduction of
updated population controls. See the note on page 5 for more information.
2 Establishment data have been revised to reflect March 2008 benchmark levels
and updated seasonal adjustment factors. See the note on page 4 for more
information.
3 Includes other industries, not shown separately.
4 Quarterly averages and the over-the-month change are calculated using
unrounded data.
5 Data relate to private production and nonsupervisory workers.
p = preliminary.

– 3 -

Industry Payroll Employment (Establishment Survey Data)

Total nonfarm payroll employment fell sharply (-598,000) in January.
Since the recession began in December 2007, 3.6 million jobs have been
lost, with about half of the decrease occurring in the last 3 months. In
January, employment declined in nearly all major industries, while health
care and private education added jobs. (See table B-1.)

Manufacturing employment fell by 207,000 in January, the largest 1-month
decline since October 1982. In January, durable goods manufacturing lost
157,000 jobs, with notable decreases in fabricated metal products (-37,000),
motor vehicles and parts (-31,000), and machinery (-22,000). Employment in
nondurable goods manufacturing declined by 50,000 over the month.

Construction lost 111,000 jobs in January. Employment in the industry
has fallen by about 1.0 million since peaking in January 2007. Employment
fell across most component industries over the month.

The temporary help industry lost 76,000 jobs in January. Since its recent
peak in December 2006, temporary help employment has declined by 695,000.
Professional and technical services lost 29,000 jobs in January.

Retail trade employment fell by 45,000 in January and by 592,000 since a
peak in November 2007. In January, employment declined in automobile dealer-
ships (-14,000), building material and garden supply stores (-10,000), depart-
ment stores (-9,000), and furniture and home furnishing stores (-7,000). Over
the month, wholesale trade employment fell by 31,000.

Transportation and warehousing lost 44,000 jobs in January and 202,000 since
the start of the recession. Most of the decline occurred over the last 5 months.
In January, employment fell in truck transportation (-25,000), support activities
for transportation (-9,000), and couriers and messengers (-4,000).

Employment in financial activities declined by 42,000 over the month and by
388,000 since a peak in December 2006. In January, job losses occurred in se-
curities, commodity contracts, and investments (-15,000) and in credit intermedi-
ation (-10,000).

Health care employment continued to trend up in January with a gain of 19,000.
Employment gains in the industry averaged 30,000 a month in 2008. Employment in
private education rose by 33,000 over the month.

The change in total nonfarm employment for November was revised from -584,000
to -597,000, and the change for December was revised from -524,000 to -577,000.
Monthly revisions result from additional sample reports and the monthly recalcula-
tion of seasonal factors. This month, the annual benchmarking process also con-
tributed to these revisions.

Weekly Hours (Establishment Survey Data)

In January, the average workweek for production and nonsupervisory workers on
private nonfarm payrolls remained at 33.3 hours, seasonally adjusted. Both the
manufacturing workweek and factory overtime decreased by 0.1 hour over the month,
to 39.8 and 2.9 hours, respectively. (See table B-2.)

The index of aggregate weekly hours of production and nonsupervisory workers on
nonfarm payrolls fell by 0.7 percent in January. The manufacturing index declined
by 2.1 percent over the month. (See table B-5.)

Hourly and Weekly Earnings (Establishment Survey Data)

In January, average hourly earnings of production and nonsupervisory workers
on private nonfarm payrolls rose by 5 cents, or 0.3 percent, seasonally adjusted.
This followed gains of 7 cents in December and 6 cents in November. Over the past
12 months, average hourly earnings increased by 3.9 percent, and average weekly
earnings rose by 2.7 percent. (See table B-3.)

______________________________

The Employment Situation for February 2009 is scheduled to be released on
Friday, March 6, at 8:30 A.M. (EST).

– 4 -

____________________________________________________________________________
| |
| Revisions to Establishment Survey Data |
| |
| In accordance with annual practice, the establishment survey data have |
|been revised to reflect comprehensive universe counts of payroll jobs, or |
|benchmarks. These counts are derived principally from unemployment insur- |
|ance tax records compiled by the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages |
|program for March 2008. As a result of the benchmark process, all not sea- |
|sonally adjusted data series were subject to revision from April 2007 for- |
|ward, the time period since the last benchmark was established. In addi- |
|tion, with this release, the seasonally adjusted establishment survey data |
|from January 2004 forward were subject to revision due to the introduction |
|of updated seasonal adjustment factors. |
| |
| Table B presents revised total nonfarm employment data on a seasonally |
|adjusted basis for January through December 2008. The revised data for |
|April 2008 forward incorporate the effect of applying the rate of change |
|measured by the sample to the new benchmark level, as well as updated net |
|business birth/death model adjustments and new seasonal adjustment factors. |
|The November and December 2008 revisions also reflect the routine incor- |
|poration of additional sample receipts into the November final and December |
|second preliminary estimates. The total nonfarm employment level or March |
|2008 was revised downward by 89,000 (17,000 on a seasonally adjusted basis).|
|The previously published level for December 2008 was revised downward by |
|172,000 (311,000 on a seasonally adjusted basis). |
| |
| An article that discusses the benchmark and post-benchmark revisions, as |
|well as all revised historical Current Employment Statistics (CES) data, can|
|be accessed through the CES homepage at http://www.bls.gov/ces/. Informa- |
|tion on the revisions released today also may be obtained by calling |
|(202) 691-6555. |
| |
| |
| |
|Table B. Revisions in total nonfarm employment, January-December 2008, |
|seasonally adjusted |
| |
|(In thousands) |
|____________________________________________________________________________|
| | | |
| | Levels | Over-the-month changes |
| Year |———————–|————————————-|
| and | As | | As | | |
| month | previously | As | previously | As | Difference |
| | published | revised | published | revised | |
|______________|____________|__________|____________|__________|_____________|
| | | | | | |
| 2008 | | | | | |
| | | | | | |
|January ……| 138,002 | 138,080 | -76 | -72 | 4 |
|February …..| 137,919 | 137,936 | -83 | -144 | -61 |
|March ……..| 137,831 | 137,814 | -88 | -122 | -34 |
|April ……..| 137,764 | 137,654 | -67 | -160 | -93 |
|May ……….| 137,717 | 137,517 | -47 | -137 | -90 |
|June ………| 137,617 | 137,356 | -100 | -161 | -61 |
|July ………| 137,550 | 137,228 | -67 | -128 | -61 |
|August …….| 137,423 | 137,053 | -127 | -175 | -48 |
|September ….| 137,020 | 136,732 | -403 | -321 | 82 |
|October ……| 136,597 | 136,352 | -423 | -380 | 43 |
|November …..| 136,013 | 135,755 | -584 | -597 | -13 |
|December (p)..| 135,489 | 135,178 | -524 | -577 | -53 |
|____________________________________________________________________________|
| |
| p = preliminary. |
|____________________________________________________________________________|

– 5 -

____________________________________________________________________________
| |
| Adjustments to Population Estimates for the Household Survey |
| |
| Effective with data for January 2009, updated population estimates have |
|been used in the household survey. Population estimates for the household |
|survey are developed by the U.S. Census Bureau. Each year, the Census |
|Bureau updates the estimates to reflect new information and assumptions |
|about the growth of the population during the decade. The change in popu- |
|lation reflected in the new estimates results primarily from adjustments |
|for net international migration, updated vital statistics information, and |
|some methodological changes in the estimation process. |
| |
| |
| In accordance with our usual practice, BLS will not revise the official |
|household survey estimates for December 2008 and earlier months. To show |
|the impact of the population adjustment, however, differences in selected |
|December 2008 labor force series based on the old and new population esti- |
|mates are shown in table C. The adjustment decreased the estimated size |
|of the civilian noninstitutional population in December by 483,000, the |
|civilian labor force by 449,000, and employment by 407,000; the new popula- |
|tion estimates had a negligible impact on unemployment rates and other per- |
|centage estimates. Data users are cautioned that these annual population |
|adjustments affect the comparability of household data series over time. |
|Estimates of large levels such as total labor force and employment are im- |
|pacted most. Table D shows the effect of the introduction of new popula- |
|tion estimates on the changes in selected labor force measures between |
|December 2008 and January 2009. More detailed information on the popula- |
|tion adjustments and their effect on national labor force estimates are |
|available at http://www.bls.gov/cps/cps09adj.pdf. |
| |
| |
|Table C. Effect of the updated population controls on December 2008 esti- |
|mates by sex, race, and Hispanic or Latino ethnicity, not seasonally ad- |
|justed |
| |
|(Numbers in thousands) |
| |
|____________________________________________________________________________|
| | | | | | | | |
| | | | | | Black | | |
| | | | | | or | | Hispanic |
| Category |Total| Men | Women| White| African| Asian | or Latino |
| | | | | |American| | ethnicity |
| | | | | | | | |
|_____________________|_____|_____|______|______|________|_______|___________|
| | | | | | | | |
|Civilian noninstitu- | | | | | | | |
| tional population…|-483 |-295 | -188 | -242 | -43 | -170 | -319 |
| Civilian labor | | | | | | | |
| force…………|-449 |-289 | -160 | -267 | -38 | -121 | -264 |
| Employed……….|-407 |-260 | -146 | -239 | -33 | -116 | -238 |
| Unemployed……..| -42 | -28 | -14 | -28 | -5 | -6 | -27 |
| Unemployment | | | | | | | |
| rate…………| .0 | .0 | .0 | .0 | .0 | .0 | .0 |
|_____________________|_____|_____|______|______|________|_______|___________|
| |
| NOTE: Detail for men and women may not sum to totals because of round- |
|ing. Estimates for the above race groups (white, black or African American,|
|and Asian) do not sum to totals because data are not presented for all |
|races. Persons whose ethnicity is identified as Hispanic or Latino may be |
|of any race. |
| |
| |
| |
|Table D. December 2008-January 2009 changes in selected labor force |
|measures, with adjustments for population control effects |
| |
|(Numbers in thousands) |
| |
|____________________________________________________________________________|
| | | | |
| | Dec.-Jan. | 2009 | Dec.-Jan. |
| | change, | population | change, |
| | as | control | after re- |
| Category | published | effect | moving the |
| | | | population |
| | | | control |
| | | | effect (1) |
|_____________________________________|___________|____________|_____________|
| | | | |
| Total | | | |
| | | | |
|Civilian noninstitutional population.| -296 | -483 | 187 |
| Civilian labor force……………| -731 | -449 | -282 |
| Participation rate……………| -.2 | -.1 | -.1 |
| Employed……………………..| -1,239 | -407 | -832 |
| Employment-population ratio……| -.5 | .0 | -.5 |
| Unemployed……………………| 508 | -42 | 550 |
| Unemployment rate……………| .4 | .0 | .4 |
| | | | |
|_____________________________________|___________|____________|_____________|
| |
| 1 This Dec.-Jan. change is calculated by subtracting the population con- |
|trol effect from the published over-the-month change. |
|____________________________________________________________________________|

Employment Situation Report – January 2009 [PDF]

Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics

• Total outstanding consumer credit: $2562.3 billion
• Total rate of change: Down 3.1%
• Revolving rate of change: Down 7.8%
• Non-revolving rate of change: Down 0.2%

Technorati Tags: consumer credit, Federal Reserve

G.19 CONSUMER CREDIT December 2008

Consumer credit decreased at an annual rate of 3 percent in the fourth quarter. Revolving credit decreased at an annual rate of
5-1/2 percent, and nonrevolving credit decreased at an annual rate of 1-3/4 percent. In December, consumer credit decreased at an
annual rate of 3 percent.

CONSUMER CREDIT OUTSTANDING 1
Seasonally adjusted
—————————————————————————————————————————————
2007 2008
_______ _______________________________________________________

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 p Q4 Q1 r Q2 r Q3 r Q4 p Oct r Nov r Dec p
—————————————————————————————————————————————
Percent change at annual rate 2
Total 5.5 4.3 4.5 5.5 1.7 4.1 4.8 3.9 1.2 -3.1 -1.0 -5.1 -3.1
Revolving 3.8 3.1 6.1 7.4 2.6 7.7 7.6 3.5 4.5 -5.4 0.1 -8.5 -7.8
Nonrevolving 3 6.4 4.9 3.6 4.4 1.2 2.0 3.1 4.2 -0.7 -1.7 -1.6 -3.1 -0.2

Amount: billions of dollars
Total 2191.6 2285.2 2387.7 2519.0 2562.3 2519.0 2549.0 2574.1 2582.1 2562.3 2579.9 2568.9 2562.3
Revolving 799.8 824.5 874.6 939.5 963.5 939.5 957.3 965.8 976.7 963.5 976.8 969.9 963.5
Nonrevolving 3 1391.8 1460.7 1513.1 1579.5 1598.7 1579.5 1591.7 1608.3 1605.4 1598.7 1603.2 1599.0 1598.7
—————————————————————————————————————————————

TERMS OF CREDIT AT COMMERCIAL BANKS AND FINANCE COMPANIES 4
Percent except as noted: not seasonally adjusted
—————————————————————————————————————————————
Institution, terms, and type of loan
—————————————————————————————————————————————
Commercial banks
Interest rates
48-mo. new car 6.60 7.08 7.72 7.77 7.02 7.59 7.27 6.84 6.92 7.05 n.a. 7.05 n.a.
24-mo. personal 11.89 12.05 12.41 12.39 11.35 12.16 11.43 11.14 11.48 11.33 n.a. 11.33 n.a.
Credit card plan
All accounts 12.72 12.51 13.21 13.38 12.07 13.08 12.46 11.87 11.93 12.02 n.a. 12.02 n.a.
Accounts assessed interest 13.22 14.55 14.73 14.67 13.57 14.34 13.77 13.51 13.64 13.36 n.a. 13.36 n.a.

New car loans at auto finance companies
Interest rates 4.92 6.02 4.99 4.87 5.52 4.55 4.85 5.28 4.87 7.09 6.41 6.43 8.42
Maturity (months) 60.7 60.0 63.0 62.0 63.4 62.9 62.6 63.5 65.4 62.3 63.9 63.2 59.8
Loan-to-value ratio 89 88 94 95 91 95 94 93 89 86 86 88 85
Amount financed (dollars) 24,888 24,133 26,620 28,287 26,178 29,512 28,174 25,493 26,643 24,400 25,391 25,041 22,769

—————————————————————————————————————————————
This release is issued around the fifth business day of each month. The exact date and time may be obtained by calling (202) 452 – 3206.
Footnotes appear on reverse.

1
CONSUMER CREDIT OUTSTANDING
(Billions of dollars)
Not seasonally adjusted

———————————————————————————————————————————————
2007 2008
_______ _______________________________________________________

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 p Q4 Q1 r Q2 r Q3 r Q4 p Oct r Nov r Dec p
———————————————————————————————————————————————

Total 2219.4 2313.9 2418.3 2551.9 2596.0 2551.9 2529.8 2555.9 2590.9 2596.0 2585.3 2582.6 2596.0

Major holders
Total 2219.4 2313.9 2418.3 2551.9 2596.0 2551.9 2529.8 2555.9 2590.9 2596.0 2585.3 2582.6 2596.0
Commercial banks 704.3 707.0 741.2 804.1 872.4 804.1 796.3 813.0 844.1 872.4 848.6 859.1 872.4
Finance companies 492.3 516.5 534.4 584.1 586.5 584.1 580.7 581.8 596.3 586.5 591.9 588.8 586.5
Credit unions 215.4 228.6 234.5 235.7 237.6 235.7 230.1 231.1 236.9 237.6 237.5 238.1 237.6
Federal government and Sallie Mae 86.1 89.8 91.7 98.4 109.9 98.4 103.5 104.6 106.9 109.9 108.4 109.2 109.9
Savings institutions 91.3 109.1 95.5 90.8 77.8 90.8 87.5 90.0 77.8 77.8 78.7 76.9 77.8
Nonfinancial business 58.6 58.8 56.8 55.2 55.4 55.2 51.2 51.3 51.9 55.4 51.9 52.7 55.4
Pools of securitized assets 5 571.5 604.0 664.2 683.7 656.4 683.7 680.4 684.1 677.0 656.4 668.2 657.7 656.4

Major types of credit
Revolving 823.7 850.0 902.3 969.6 994.4 969.6 943.2 959.4 975.8 994.4 974.7 978.8 994.4
Commercial banks 314.6 311.2 327.3 353.4 383.9 353.4 322.5 328.9 356.3 383.9 363.3 372.4 383.9
Finance companies 50.4 66.3 79.9 86.0 83.2 86.0 82.1 84.0 83.3 83.2 82.1 81.7 83.2
Credit unions 23.2 24.7 27.4 31.1 33.3 31.1 30.3 31.3 32.1 33.3 32.1 32.4 33.3
Federal government and Sallie Mae n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.
Savings institutions 27.9 40.8 42.5 44.8 38.4 44.8 42.8 45.9 36.1 38.4 36.9 37.6 38.4
Nonfinancial business 12.4 11.6 7.8 4.2 4.2 4.2 3.6 3.7 3.8 4.2 3.8 4.0 4.2
Pools of securitized assets 5 395.2 395.4 417.5 450.0 451.4 450.0 462.0 465.6 464.1 451.4 456.5 450.8 451.4

Nonrevolving 1395.7 1463.9 1515.9 1582.3 1601.6 1582.3 1586.6 1596.5 1615.1 1601.6 1610.6 1603.8 1601.6
Commercial banks 389.6 395.8 413.9 450.7 488.6 450.7 473.9 484.1 487.8 488.6 485.4 486.7 488.6
Finance companies 442.0 450.2 454.5 498.0 503.3 498.0 498.7 497.7 512.9 503.3 509.8 507.2 503.3
Credit unions 192.1 203.9 207.1 204.6 204.3 204.6 199.9 199.8 204.8 204.3 205.5 205.7 204.3
Federal government and Sallie Mae 86.1 89.8 91.7 98.4 109.9 98.4 103.5 104.6 106.9 109.9 108.4 109.2 109.9
Savings institutions 63.4 68.3 53.1 46.0 39.4 46.0 44.7 44.1 41.7 39.4 41.8 39.3 39.4
Nonfinancial business 46.2 47.2 49.0 50.9 51.1 50.9 47.6 47.6 48.1 51.1 48.1 48.8 51.1
Pools of securitized assets 5 176.3 208.6 246.7 233.6 205.0 233.6 218.4 218.5 212.9 205.0 211.7 206.9 205.0

1. Covers most short- and intermediate-term credit extended to individuals, excluding loans secured by real estate.
2. The series for consumer credit outstanding and its components may contain breaks that result from discontinuities in source data.
Percent changes are adjusted to exclude the effect of such breaks. In addition percent changes are at a simple annual rate and are
calculated from unrounded data.
3. Includes automobile loans and all other loans not included in revolving credit, such as loans for mobile homes, education, boats,
trailers, or vacations. These loans may be secured or unsecured.
4. Interest rates are annual percentage rates (APR) as specified by the Federal Reserve’s Regulation Z. Interest rates for new-car loans
and personal loans at commercial banks are simple unweighted averages of each bank’s most common rate charged during the first calendar
week of the middle month of each quarter. For credit card accounts, the rate for all accounts is the stated APR averaged across all
credit card accounts at all reporting banks. The rate for accounts assessed interest is the annualized ratio of total finance charges
at all reporting banks to the total average daily balances against which the finance charges were assessed (excludes accounts for
which no finance charges were assessed). Finance company data are from the subsidiaries of the three major U.S. automobile manufacturers
and are volume-weighted averages covering all loans of each type purchased during the month.
5. Outstanding balances of pools upon which securities have been issued; these balances are no longer carried on the balance sheets
of the loan originators.
r=revised. p=preliminary.

Source: Federal Reserve Board

• Index: 118
• Monthly Change: Down 13
• Year-to-year Change: Down 42 Points
• Regions Growing: 0
• Regions Unchanged: 0
• Regions Declining: 9

Technorati Tags: monster, employment, index

Monster Employment Index Declines in January
January 2009 Index Highlights:
• Index dips 13 points as online recruitment activity slows for the fourth
consecutive month
• Year-over-year, the Index was down 26%, a more negative pace than that seen
during the previous three months, suggesting further deterioration in labor
market conditions to start 2009
• Online demand in the Public Administration rebounds after two months of
decline
• Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation remains the weakest trending industry
sector, indicating a further softening in consumer leisure spending activity
• Farming, Fishing and Forestry is the only occupational category to show a
monthly, as well as a year-over-year increase in online recruitment activity
• The slowdown in recruitment activity over the year has affected all regions of
the country by similar degrees; over the past quarter, the Mountain region has
shown particularly mild declines.
• All 28 major metro markets register declines in January, with Seattle recording
the mildest annual decrease
Summary Overview
The Monster Employment Index declined 13 points in January, as a majority of
industries, occupations, and markets noted a contraction in online job availability amid
sustained uncertain economic conditions. Year-over-year, the Index is now down 26
percent, suggesting further deterioration in the labor market at the onset of the new
year.
The Monster Employment Index is a monthly gauge of U.S. online job demand based on
a real-time review of millions of employer job opportunities culled from a large
representative selection of corporate career Web sites and job boards, including
Monster®.
During January, online job availability rose in two of the Index’s 20 industry categories
and one of the 23 occupational categories measured. Index results for the past 13
months are as follows:
JAN 09 DEC 08 NOV 08 OCT 08 SEP 08 AUG 08 JUL 08 JUN 08 MAY 08 APR 08 MAR 08 FEB 08 JAN 08
118 131 143 150 160 159 157 163 166 174 167 165 160
www.monster.com December 2008
2 of 11
“The fact that employers have chosen to begin recruiting in 2009 on a cautious note is
not surprising given the uncertain nature of the global economy,” said Jesse Harriott,
senior vice president and chief knowledge officer at Monster Worldwide. “However,
there are a few bright spots, including recruiting activity in Public Administration as well
as in the Agricultural sector. Furthermore, online recruitment activity still remains
higher than levels seen during 2003 after the last recession.”
Public Administration and Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing and Hunting
Industries Show Increased Online Job Demand in January
Public Administration and Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing and Hunting were the only two
industry categories to register an increase in online job availability in January. The
increase in the Public Administration sector, which rebounded after two consecutive
months of decline, indicated that the government has stepped up recruiting efforts.
There, however, seems to be a fundamental shift in the types of jobs on offer, with
more temporary and contract jobs on the market now than in the past.
In contrast, the Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation industry plunged in January as
scaled-back consumer spending exacted an increasingly heavy toll on the hiring of
leisure-related workers. Meanwhile, the Finance and Insurance industry again posted a
large decline in January as the current economic situation continued to weigh on the
banking industry. Administrative/ Support also registered a record monthly decline.
Construction had a mild decline relative to the Index as a whole and, while the decline
was small, it still indicated reduced job availability in an industry that has now
experienced 18 consecutive months of month-over-month payroll shrinkage. Wholesale
Trade and Transportation and Warehousing continued their downward trend reflecting
that, with the lack of growth in wholesale orders and general consumption, both
industries have stepped-down their capacity utilization.
On a year-over-year basis, Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing and Hunting was the Index’s
fastest growing industry category, followed by Public Administration – the only other
sector demonstrating an increase in demand over the year.
Online Job Opportunities for Farming, Fishing and Forestry Occupations rise
in January
Farming, Fishing and Forestry was the only occupational category to register an increase
in online job availability in January, as demand for all other occupational categories
continued to be impacted by the economic recession.
Meanwhile, Healthcare Support occupations saw a small monthly decline, extending a
four-month stretch of gradually tapered online demand. However, the healthcare
industry’s relative resilience despite the recession was reflected in the way Healthcare
Practitioners and Technical occupations nearly matched its year-ago level. Occupations
in both Office and Administrative Support and Protective Service logged substantial
declines in January. In fact, the Protective Service category, which seemed less impacted
by economic conditions earlier in 2008, is now lower than any other time in the Index.
December 2008
www.monster.com
3 of 11
On a year-over-year basis, Farming, Fishing and Forestry led all categories in terms of
annual growth followed by Military Specific, mirroring the labor market trends in the
Public Sector as a whole.
Online Job Demand Dips in All Nine U.S. Census Bureau Regions in January
Online job availability fell in all nine U.S. Census Bureau regions in January. The East
South Central region fell for the fourth consecutive month but to a lesser degree than
the national average. New England registered the steepest rate of decline over the past
three months, influenced heavily by the slowdown in demand in Massachusetts during
the last quarter of 2008. The Pacific region registered the steepest annual decline. By
contrast, Mountain had the most moderate decline in January and over the past three
months, due in large part to Nevada’s online recruitment picking up during Q4 2008.
At the state level, Nevada and Alaska were the only two states that registered an
increase in online job availability during January. West Virginia reported positive growth
year-over-year.
Adjusting the number of online help-wanted ads for total working population, the
Monster Employment Index found the following states to be the top ten in terms of per-
capita online job availability during the month of January:
Rank State
1 Alaska
2 Nevada
3 Maryland
4 Vermont
5 Montana
6 Connecticut
7 Massachusetts
8 Delaware
9 Wyoming
10 Rhode Island
December 2008
www.monster.com
4 of 11
All of the Top 28 Major U.S. Metro Markets register declines in January
There were fewer online job opportunities in all of the top 28 metro markets
monitored by the Index. Sacramento and Denver registered the most moderate rate of
decline. In contrast, Portland dropped the most among metro markets in the Index over
the past three months reflecting slumping demand for construction, production, IT and
creative occupations.
Year-over-year, Philadelphia registered the steepest decline and Seattle notched the
smallest annual decline buoyed by solid hiring in healthcare, the sciences, IT, and
creative occupations.
Top Industries Looking for Employees in January
Industries showing the greatest increase in online job availability in January included:
JAN 09 DEC 08 NOV 08 OCT 08 SEP 08 JAN 08
INDUSTRY
Public Administration 207 178 200 213 210 185
Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing and
Hunting 205 181 170 168 178 162
Most Wanted Occupational Experience in January
Only one occupational category registered an increase in online job demand in January:
JAN 09 DEC 08 NOV 08 OCT 08 SEP 08 JAN 08
OCCUPATIONS
Farming, Fishing, and Forestry 169 161 156 153 164 140
Online Job Demand Declines across All Major Regions in January
Online job opportunities declined by various degrees in all of the 9 U.S. Census Bureau
Divisions in January. The regions are presented here in order of smallest month-to-
month rate of decrease:
JAN 09 DEC 08 NOV 08 OCT 08 SEP 08 JAN 08
U.S. CENSUS BUREAU REGIONS
Mountain 125 133 146 152 162 169
South Atlantic 113 123 134 139 145 151
East South Central 118 128 141 147 153 146
East North Central 104 115 131 139 148 149
Pacific 101 112 125 133 142 155
December 2008
www.monster.com
5 of 11
New England 108 121 137 145 154 164
Middle Atlantic 106 119 133 140 150 153
West North Central 119 134 149 156 167 168
West South Central 191 214 235 242 258 236
December 2008
www.monster.com
6 of 11
Monster Employment Index, 2007-2008
180
170
160
150
140
130
120
110
100
90
80
Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan
JAN 08 FEB 08 MAR 08 APR 08 MAY 08 JUN 08 JUL 08 AUG 08 SEP 08 OCT 08 NOV 08 DEC 08 JAN 09
160 165 167 174 166 163 157 159 160 150 143 131 118
December 2008
www.monster.com
7 of 11
By Region
2009 2008
Jan Dec Nov Oct Sep Aug Jul Jun May Apr Mar Feb Jan
New England 108 121 137 145 154 154 150 157 159 173 167 172 164
Mid-Atlantic 106 119 133 140 150 148 146 151 155 169 160 159 153
East North Central 104 115 131 139 148 147 145 150 152 163 159 157 149
West North Central 119 134 149 156 167 168 162 175 176 186 178 177 168
South Atlantic 113 123 134 139 145 145 144 149 151 163 156 155 151
East South Central 118 128 141 147 153 153 154 157 156 166 154 152 146
West South Central 191 214 235 242 258 257 253 259 264 262 250 245 236
Mountain 125 133 146 152 162 162 161 167 170 179 173 170 169
Pacific 101 112 125 133 142 142 142 147 151 161 158 156 155
December 2008
www.monster.com
8 of 11
By Industry
2009 2008
Jan Dec Nov Oct Sep Aug Jul Jun May Apr Mar Feb Jan
Agriculture, Forestry,
205 181 170 168 178 192 208 202 207 200 200 196 162
Fishing and Hunting
Mining, Quarrying and Oil
145 160 171 186 181 178 171 167 171 167 168 172 160
and Gas Extraction
94 131 120 134 134 126 109 121 135 126 127 124 124
Utilities
170 177 186 197 202 203 204 213 217 216 211 205 195
Construction
85 93 102 109 112 112 113 116 117 120 117 111 104
Manufacturing
123 128 141 148 151 155 150 157 161 167 164 165 154
Wholesale Trade
121 135 157 161 172 162 161 171 162 167 154 150 148
Retail Trade
Transportation and
123 146 163 173 178 178 176 181 178 180 174 168 163
Warehousing
77 89 101 109 115 113 117 122 124 134 124 119 115
Information
63 74 91 101 108 107 99 103 110 123 117 120 112
Finance and Insurance
Real Estate and Rental and
47 59 67 76 85 86 84 105 113 115 108 107 99
Leasing
Professional, Scientific, and
60 72 87 99 105 105 118 126 136 138 133 130 123
Technical Services
Management of Companies
109 116 132 140 145 145 148 150 149 161 150 152 144
and Enterprises
Administrative, Support,
51 60 73 82 88 85 80 91 96 100 97 95 86
Waste Management,
Remediation Services
74 89 95 98 104 113 104 108 108 119 114 113 101
Educational Services
Healthcare and Social
94 104 111 113 117 117 115 120 119 119 116 113 108
Assistance
Arts, Entertainment, and
47 58 80 92 104 94 84 79 87 100 92 84 96
Recreation
Accommodation and Food
98 108 126 129 139 138 130 138 148 164 140 137 128
Services
207 178 200 213 210 192 185 178 193 228 217 208 185
Public Administration
175 190 206 216 220 216 213 226 226 223 211 203 192
Other Services
December 2008
www.monster.com
9 of 11
By Occupation
2009 2008
Jan Dec Nov Oct Sep Aug Jul Jun May Apr Mar Feb Jan
137 152 172 183 192 192 194 202 196 182 173 184 178
Management
Business and Financial
118 131 145 151 158 157 156 163 170 184 177 183 175
Operations
95 111 126 139 146 145 144 147 153 167 162 160 157
Computer and Mathematical
Architecture and
93 108 127 139 147 146 146 154 163 175 177 173 173
Engineering
Life, Physical, and Social
117 131 140 144 145 142 141 144 146 159 156 153 147
Science
Community and Social
151 184 197 197 210 201 186 198 195 194 190 204 196
Services
96 123 133 144 157 157 157 163 167 180 171 175 167
Legal
Education, Training, and
99 109 114 117 123 132 121 125 130 147 144 142 137
Library
Arts, Design, Entertainment,
80 87 96 103 107 105 104 108 116 130 128 125 126
Sports, and Media
Healthcare Practitioners and
158 174 186 189 199 200 196 199 196 193 181 166 162
Technical
185 195 206 206 222 229 222 218 221 218 201 195 205
Healthcare Support
85 105 120 117 111 113 120 119 127 135 130 130 142
Protective Service
Food Preparation and
121 130 150 149 155 157 153 154 162 183 159 161 152
Serving Related
Building, Grounds Cleaning,
102 115 132 139 150 151 149 152 157 160 154 145 136
Maintenance
68 73 86 96 115 119 127 137 131 127 126 120 159
Personal Care and Service
77 85 97 100 109 108 108 112 118 132 128 125 122
Sales and Related
Office and Administrative
91 105 120 125 132 129 125 136 146 153 150 152 145
Support
Farming, Fishing, and
169 161 156 153 164 179 195 188 185 172 172 174 140
Forestry
96 103 111 120 124 123 123 131 135 141 137 129 124
Construction and Extraction
Installation, Maintenance,
115 135 152 167 176 173 176 185 190 186 164 159 154
and Repair
100 108 119 127 131 130 130 136 140 147 145 142 131
Production
Transportation and Material
72 84 93 98 103 104 103 106 106 113 111 108 108
Moving
December 2008
www.monster.com
10 of 11
171 184 187 188 193 181 175 182 178 172 169 161 159
Military Specific
By Local Market
2009 2008
Jan Dec Nov Oct Sep Aug Jul Jun May Apr Mar Feb Jan
72 81 97 106 112 111 114 120 122 131 127 129 123
Atlanta
52 62 69 74 77 75 77 80 83 91 88 89 86
Baltimore
64 79 93 107 112 112 107 114 121 131 123 131 120
Boston
62 76 88 99 103 102 103 105 109 119 115 121 106
Chicago
67 86 112 118 126 118 122 129 129 141 132 137 124
Cincinnati
75 89 112 118 121 120 122 126 128 137 133 129 114
Cleveland
89 99 123 130 135 133 137 138 140 147 139 138 128
Dallas
82 90 111 121 128 126 129 134 136 138 133 130 125
Denver
65 80 101 110 119 116 119 125 125 132 128 123 105
Detroit
108 124 149 149 162 157 153 158 160 164 159 157 146
Houston
68 81 99 107 109 108 108 110 113 119 111 114 98
Indianapolis
71 88 122 124 129 134 134 139 139 152 140 145 123
Kansas City
58 67 74 81 85 85 85 90 93 101 98 99 90
Los Angeles
62 68 79 87 89 87 91 88 89 96 91 95 92
Miami
75 85 100 108 114 112 112 119 124 129 124 123 115
Minneapolis
67 79 89 98 101 101 100 103 110 118 113 117 108
New York City
37 48 59 57 60 61 66 74 76 84 76 77 70
Orlando
47 55 72 85 90 87 88 94 104 116 106 105 98
Philadelphia
63 70 79 87 90 90 92 99 102 104 102 104 99
Phoenix
105 122 159 165 166 158 154 163 163 163 153 147 140
Pittsburgh
59 74 93 111 118 120 122 128 130 140 135 128 114
Portland
68 72 79 84 88 88 87 91 93 95 93 95 89
Sacramento
66 74 82 89 94 95 91 95 98 102 98 98 91
San Diego
December 2008
www.monster.com
11 of 11
63 70 79 89 94 95 94 97 102 106 103 109 100
San Francisco
92 104 110 122 129 127 127 135 136 139 137 131 120
Seattle
89 104 125 133 139 138 139 147 148 154 149 149 137
St. Louis
65 74 83 83 87 88 90 95 96 99 95 95 90
Tampa
54 63 74 85 89 84 83 87 96 105 100 101 90
Washington, D.C.
About the Monster Employment Index
Launched in April 2004 with data collected since October 2003, the Monster Employment
Index is a broad and comprehensive monthly analysis of U.S. online job demand conducted
by Monster Worldwide, Inc. Based on a real-time review of millions of employer job
opportunities culled from a large, representative selection of online career outlets, including
Monster®, the Monster Employment Index presents a snapshot of employer online
recruitment activity nationwide. The Monster Employment Index’s underlying data is
validated for accuracy by Research America, Inc. – an independent, third-party auditing firm –
to ensure that measured online job recruitment activity is within a margin of error of +/-
1.05%. Data for the month of January will be released on February 5, 2009.
About Monster Worldwide
Monster Worldwide, Inc. (NYSE: MWW), parent company of Monster®, the premier global
online employment solution for more than a decade, strives to bring people together to
advance their lives. With a local presence in key markets in North America, Europe, and
Asia, Monster works for everyone by connecting employers with quality job seekers at all
levels and by providing personalized career advice to consumers globally. Through online
media sites and services, Monster delivers vast, highly targeted audiences to advertisers.
Monster Worldwide is a member of the S&P 500 Index and the NYSE. To learn more about
Monster’s industry-leading products and services, visit www.monster.com. More information
about Monster Worldwide is available at http://corporate.monster.com.
Special Note: Safe Harbor Statement Under the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995: Except for
historical information contained herein, the statements made in this release constitute forward-looking
statements within the meaning of Section 27A of the Securities Act of 1933 and Section 21E of the Securities
Exchange Act of 1934. Such forward-looking statements involve certain risks and uncertainties, including
statements regarding Monster Worldwide, Inc.’s strategic direction, prospects and future results. Certain
factors, including factors outside of Monster Worldwide’s control, may cause actual results to differ materially
from those contained in the forward- looking statements, including economic and other conditions in the
markets in which Monster Worldwide operates, risks associated with acquisitions, competition, seasonality
and the other risks discussed in Monster Worldwide’s Form 10-K and other filings made with the Securities
and Exchange Commission.
December 2008
www.monster.com

Source: Monster

• M1 Seasonally Adjusted Prior Month: $1595.8 billion
• M1 4-Week Average: $1584.5 billion
• M1 Annual Change (Unadjusted): $238.3 billion
• M2 Seasonally Adjusted Prior Month: $8154.1 billion
• M2 4-Week Average: $8242.4 billion
• M2 Annual Change (Unadjusted): $726.1 billion

Technorati Tags: money supply, Federal Reserve, M1, M2

FEDERAL RESERVE STATISTICAL RELEASE

H.6 (508)
Table 1 For release at 4:30 p.m. Eastern Time
February 5, 2009
MONEY STOCK MEASURES
Billions of dollars
—————————————————————————————————————————————————-
Date M1(1) M2(2) M1(1) M2(2)
—————————– ———————————————————— ——————————————————-
Seasonally adjusted Not seasonally adjusted
—————————– ———————————————————— ——————————————————-
2007-Jan. 1373.6 7069.5 1368.8 7043.0
Feb. 1366.0 7076.1 1347.2 7050.7
Mar. 1368.1 7111.7 1378.6 7147.8
Apr. 1378.8 7160.7 1392.1 7234.8
May 1379.7 7189.1 1384.0 7175.2
June 1364.5 7212.3 1368.3 7217.4
July 1366.6 7239.4 1365.7 7219.8
Aug. 1368.4 7287.7 1369.0 7279.2
Sep. 1366.2 7322.6 1351.1 7305.0
Oct. 1371.7 7352.8 1361.6 7317.1
Nov. 1366.7 7384.4 1361.7 7376.5
Dec. 1364.5 7417.3 1386.2 7444.9

2008-Jan. 1368.4 7463.6 1364.4 7438.0
Feb. 1371.1 7539.0 1351.5 7517.6
Mar. 1372.9 7600.5 1384.8 7652.0
Apr. 1373.7 7620.0 1387.4 7697.5
May 1373.7 7637.8 1376.9 7632.1
June 1383.6 7648.5 1388.2 7652.0
July 1400.1 7698.8 1399.8 7671.7
Aug. 1392.2 7687.1 1392.4 7682.6
Sep. 1452.1 7795.9 1435.1 7761.1
Oct. 1475.2 7915.8 1464.9 7878.5
Nov. 1524.1 7972.5 1518.4 7968.1
Dec. 1595.8 8154.1 1624.5 8171.0

—————————————————————————————————————————————————-
Percent change at seasonally adjusted annual rates M1 M2
—————————————————————————————————————————————————-
3 Months from Sep. 2008 TO Dec. 2008 39.6 18.4
6 Months from June 2008 TO Dec. 2008 30.7 13.2
12 Months from Dec. 2007 TO Dec. 2008 17.0 9.9
—————————————————————————————————————————————————-
1. M1 consists of (1) currency outside the U.S. Treasury, Federal Reserve Banks, and the vaults of depository institutions; (2) traveler’s checks of
nonbank issuers; (3) demand deposits at commercial banks (excluding those amounts held by depository institutions, the U.S. government, and
foreign banks and official institutions) less cash items in the process of collection and Federal Reserve float; and (4) other checkable deposits
(OCDs), consisting of negotiable order of withdrawal (NOW) and automatic transfer service (ATS) accounts at depository institutions, credit union
share draft accounts, and demand deposits at thrift institutions. Seasonally adjusted M1 is constructed by summing currency, traveler’s checks,
demand deposits, and OCDs, each seasonally adjusted separately.
2. M2 consists of M1 plus (1) savings deposits (including money market deposit accounts); (2) small-denomination time deposits (time deposits in
amounts of less than $100,000), less individual retirement account (IRA) and Keogh balances at depository institutions; and (3) balances in
retail money market mutual funds, less IRA and Keogh balances at money market mutual funds. Seasonally adjusted M2 is constructed by summing
savings deposits, small-denomination time deposits, and retail money funds, each seasonally adjusted separately, and adding this result to
seasonally adjusted M1.

p preliminary
Components may not add to totals due to rounding.
1

H.6 (508)
Table 2
MONEY STOCK MEASURES
Billions of Dollars
——————————————————————————————————————————————————–
M1 M2 M1 M2
——————————– ——————————– ——————————– ———————————–
Period Ending 13-week 4-week week 13-week 4-week week 13-week 4-week week 13-week 4-week week
average average average average average average average average average average average average
—————– —————————————————————– ——————————————————————–
Seasonally adjusted Not seasonally adjusted
—————– —————————————————————– ——————————————————————–
2008-Nov. 3 1444.3 1485.2 1525.4 7809.0 7928.6 7922.6 1436.3 1483.2 1561.3 7781.6 7892.8 7897.6
10 1453.8 1499.7 1525.2 7827.4 7935.6 7934.1 1444.5 1496.7 1465.4 7799.7 7903.0 7933.8
17 1463.8 1512.7 1514.9 7848.5 7936.3 7953.8 1452.8 1505.9 1478.3 7821.2 7913.5 7970.2
24 1474.7 1524.2 1531.3 7872.3 7952.3 7998.6 1463.6 1513.1 1547.4 7846.0 7943.3 7971.4

Dec. 1 1485.5 1525.8 1531.7 7898.8 7982.4 8043.2 1474.8 1519.2 1585.5 7874.7 7978.8 8039.9
8 1498.1 1539.0 1577.9 7930.3 8022.7 8095.1 1488.3 1538.7 1543.5 7906.5 8024.1 8114.9
15 1511.2 1560.4 1600.5 7963.9 8069.5 8141.0 1504.5 1563.8 1578.7 7941.5 8072.7 8164.7
22 1520.8 1577.0 1597.8 7986.2 8113.1 8172.9 1518.5 1587.2 1641.0 7969.7 8126.5 8186.5
29 1528.8 1593.1 1596.0 8008.4 8151.3 8196.2 1532.4 1618.9 1712.3 7999.9 8167.5 8203.7

2009-Jan. 5 1542.6 1608.1 1638.2 8035.6 8181.0 8213.8 1550.3 1650.3 1669.0 8032.9 8206.6 8271.3
12 1553.0 1608.4 1601.5 8059.9 8201.2 8222.0 1561.2 1643.8 1552.8 8059.4 8224.8 8237.8
19p 1559.7 1596.4 1549.9 8083.4 8222.2 8256.9 1568.0 1616.1 1530.2 8082.6 8235.6 8229.7
26p 1564.5 1584.5 1548.4 8109.8 8242.4 8276.7 1570.9 1577.0 1555.9 8108.1 8230.6 8183.4

——————————————————————————————————————————————————–
Percent change at seasonally adjusted annual rates M1 M2
——————————————————————————————————————————————————–
Thirteen weeks ending January 26, 2009
from thirteen weeks ending:
Oct. 27, 2008 (13 weeks previous) 35.9 16.3
July 28, 2008 (26 weeks previous) 26.1 11.8
Jan. 28, 2008 (52 weeks previous) 14.5 9.3
——————————————————————————————————————————————————–
Note: Special caution should be taken in interpreting week-to-week changes in money supply data, which are highly volatile and subject to revision.

p preliminary
Components may not add to totals due to rounding.
1

H.6 (508)
Table 3
SEASONALLY ADJUSTED COMPONENTS OF M1
Billions of dollars
——————————————————————————————————————————————
Other Checkable Deposits
——————————————————
At commercial At thrift
Date Currency(1) Traveler’s checks(2) Demand Deposits(3) banks(4) institutions(5) Total
——————————————————————————————————————————————
2007-Aug. 759.0 6.4 300.7 171.3 130.9 302.2
Sep. 760.5 6.4 295.9 170.9 132.5 303.4

Oct. 762.8 6.4 296.8 173.6 132.1 305.6
Nov. 761.0 6.3 296.7 173.0 129.6 302.6
Dec. 757.6 6.3 292.9 174.3 133.5 307.8

2008-Jan. 756.6 6.2 295.3 175.1 135.2 310.3
Feb. 757.6 6.2 294.8 176.9 135.5 312.5
Mar. 760.7 6.2 294.6 176.6 134.9 311.5

Apr. 760.1 6.1 295.1 177.1 135.3 312.3
May 763.4 6.1 292.0 175.0 137.2 312.2
June 769.0 6.0 294.5 176.4 137.7 314.2

July 774.5 5.9 303.8 176.8 139.2 316.0
Aug. 777.0 5.8 301.0 172.3 136.0 308.3
Sep. 781.6 5.8 350.6 176.8 137.3 314.1

Oct. 796.6 5.7 361.1 176.1 135.7 311.8
Nov. 804.6 5.6 407.5 173.3 133.0 306.3
Dec. 812.3 5.5 465.7 178.6 133.7 312.3

Week Ending:
2008-Dec. 1 808.1 5.6 413.5 171.6 132.8 304.5
8 809.6 5.6 455.8 175.1 131.8 306.9
15 811.0 5.5 472.5 178.6 132.9 311.4
22 812.0 5.5 465.2 180.7 134.4 315.1
29 815.4 5.5 460.8 178.8 135.4 314.2

2009-Jan. 5 818.2 5.5 502.0 179.0 133.5 312.5
12 819.7 5.5 e 470.5 173.0 132.7 305.7
19p 823.4 5.5 e 413.6 173.4 134.0 307.4
26p 829.3 5.6 e 403.1 173.9 136.6 310.5

——————————————————————————————————————————————
1. Currency outside U.S. Treasury, Federal Reserve Banks and the vaults of depository institutions.
2. Outstanding amount of U.S. dollar-denominated traveler’s checks of nonbank issuers. Traveler’s checks issued by depository institutions
are included in demand deposits.
3. Demand deposits at domestically chartered commercial banks, U.S. branches and agencies of foreign banks, and Edge Act corporations
(excluding those amounts held by depository institutions, the U.S. government, and foreign banks and official institutions) less cash
items in the process of collection and Federal Reserve float.
4. NOW and ATS balances at domestically chartered commercial banks, U.S. branches and agencies of foreign banks, and Edge Act corporations.
5. NOW and ATS balances at thrift institutions, credit union share draft balances, and demand deposits at thrift institutions.

e estimated
p preliminary
Components may not add to totals due to rounding.
1

H.6 (508)
Table 4
SEASONALLY ADJUSTED COMPONENTS OF NON-M1 M2
Billions of dollars
—————————————————————————————————————————————————-
Savings Deposits(1) Small-denomination time deposit(2)
————————————— ————————————— Memorandum:
At At At At Retail Institutional
Date commercial thrift commercial thrift money Total money
banks institutions Total banks institutions Total funds(3) Non-M1 M2 funds(4)
—————————————————————————————————————————————————-
2007-Aug. 2990.4 838.3 3828.8 768.8 428.3 1197.1 893.4 5919.2 1618.1
Sep. 3007.9 828.6 3836.5 776.5 430.8 1207.3 912.6 5956.4 1719.9

Oct. 3013.5 831.2 3844.8 803.3 409.0 1212.3 924.1 5981.2 1805.2
Nov. 3029.8 829.2 3859.0 819.8 395.4 1215.2 943.5 6017.7 1869.4
Dec. 3041.3 827.3 3868.7 821.4 395.3 1216.7 967.4 6052.8 1903.9

2008-Jan. 3050.2 835.6 3885.8 822.3 399.2 1221.4 988.0 6095.2 1940.6
Feb. 3081.5 839.9 3921.4 823.6 399.1 1222.7 1023.8 6168.0 2064.8
Mar. 3120.7 855.2 3975.9 818.6 395.2 1213.7 1037.9 6227.5 2133.8

Apr. 3122.0 859.1 3981.1 815.5 394.5 1210.0 1055.2 6246.3 2180.1
May 3126.5 883.6 4010.1 816.7 391.4 1208.0 1046.0 6264.1 2216.8
June 3123.9 897.4 4021.2 820.9 386.4 1207.3 1036.3 6264.8 2248.3

July 3131.0 902.3 4033.3 835.9 382.4 1218.3 1047.1 6298.6 2265.0
Aug. 3116.7 889.5 4006.1 858.8 383.9 1242.7 1046.0 6294.9 2286.6
Sep. 3171.0 861.9 4032.9 878.5 380.0 1258.5 1052.4 6343.8 2251.1

Oct. 3250.3 783.4 4033.7 966.3 346.5 1312.8 1094.2 6440.6 2231.1
Nov. 3245.9 766.5 4012.4 995.4 352.0 1347.4 1088.5 6448.4 2325.8
Dec. 3327.7 769.3 4097.0 1015.9 354.0 1369.9 1091.4 6558.3 2389.2

Week ending:
2008-Dec. 1 3286.6 775.4 4062.0 1007.2 350.0 1357.2 1092.3 6511.5 2358.7
8 3297.9 763.3 4061.2 1010.9 351.9 1362.8 1093.3 6517.3 2368.7
15 3318.7 763.0 4081.7 1015.3 352.7 1368.0 1090.8 6540.5 2363.6
22 3341.0 769.8 4110.8 1018.9 354.8 1373.7 1090.6 6575.1 2388.5
29 3355.6 780.6 4136.2 1019.6 355.0 1374.6 1089.4 6600.2 2415.3

2009-Jan. 5 3338.3 767.3 4105.6 1018.3 355.8 1374.1 1095.9 6575.6 2477.0
12 3382.3 767.9 4150.2 1016.3 355.6 1372.0 1098.3 6620.5 2465.4
19p 3468.4 777.6 4245.9 1013.9 356.0 1369.9 1091.2 6707.0 2492.5
26p 3490.7 788.9 4279.7 1010.1 356.2 1366.3 1082.3 6728.3 2453.7

—————————————————————————————————————————————————-
1. Savings deposits include money market deposit accounts.
2. Small-denomination time deposits are those issued in amounts of less than $100,000. All IRA and Keogh account balances at commercial banks and
thrift institutions are subtracted from small time deposits.
3. IRA and Keogh account balances at money market mutual funds are subtracted from retail money funds.
4. Institutional money funds are not part of non-M1 M2.

p preliminary
Components may not add to totals due to rounding.
1

H.6 (508)
Table 5
NOT SEASONALLY ADJUSTED COMPONENTS OF M1
Billions of dollars
——————————————————————————————————————————————
Other Checkable Deposits
——————————————————
At commercial At thrift
Date Currency(1) Traveler’s checks(2) Demand Deposits(3) banks(4) institutions(5) Total
——————————————————————————————————————————————
2007-Aug. 757.3 6.6 305.2 167.1 132.8 299.9
Sep. 756.7 6.5 289.9 165.0 133.0 298.0

Oct. 759.6 6.4 296.3 169.2 130.2 299.4
Nov. 762.2 6.3 297.2 167.6 128.5 296.0
Dec. 763.8 6.3 304.7 178.2 133.2 311.4

2008-Jan. 755.4 6.2 289.9 181.6 131.2 312.8
Feb. 758.7 6.1 281.3 175.1 130.4 305.5
Mar. 761.9 6.1 299.3 181.4 136.2 317.5

Apr. 759.7 6.1 296.5 185.3 139.8 325.1
May 764.0 6.1 291.5 176.8 138.5 315.3
June 768.8 6.1 296.1 178.0 139.2 317.2

July 774.8 6.1 305.0 173.3 140.7 313.9
Aug. 775.3 6.0 305.8 167.3 138.0 305.3
Sep. 776.7 5.8 344.0 170.5 138.2 308.7

Oct. 793.6 5.7 360.7 171.5 133.4 304.9
Nov. 806.4 5.6 407.3 167.0 132.1 299.1
Dec. 818.9 5.5 484.7 182.7 132.8 315.4

Week Ending:
2008-Dec. 1 811.7 5.5 458.4 174.0 136.0 309.9
8 812.5 5.5 426.7 168.3 130.5 298.8
15 814.9 5.5 458.3 172.4 127.7 300.1
22 821.1 5.5 494.2 187.3 133.0 320.2
29 827.4 5.5 543.6 198.9 136.8 335.7

2009-Jan. 5 824.4 5.5 512.6 189.3 137.1 326.5
12 820.4 5.5 e 427.5 172.6 126.8 299.4
19p 821.6 5.5 e 396.9 178.5 127.7 306.2
26p 825.6 5.6 e 409.6 186.1 129.0 315.2

——————————————————————————————————————————————
1. Currency outside U.S. Treasury, Federal Reserve Banks and the vaults of depository institutions.
2. Outstanding amount of U.S. dollar-denominated traveler’s checks of nonbank issuers. Traveler’s checks issued by depository institutions
are included in demand deposits.
3. Demand deposits at domestically chartered commercial banks, U.S. branches and agencies of foreign banks, and Edge Act corporations
(excluding those amounts held by depository institutions, the U.S. government, and foreign banks and official institutions) less cash
items in the process of collection and Federal Reserve float.
4. NOW and ATS balances at domestically chartered commercial banks, U.S. branches and agencies of foreign banks, and Edge Act corporations.
5. NOW and ATS balances at thrift institutions, credit union share draft balances, and demand deposits at thrift institutions.

e estimated
p preliminary
Components may not add to totals due to rounding.
1

H.6 (508)
Table 6
NOT SEASONALLY ADJUSTED COMPONENTS OF NON-M1 M2
Billions of dollars
—————————————————————————————————————————————————-
Savings Deposits(1) Small-denomination time deposit(2)
————————————— ————————————— Memorandum:
At At At At Retail Institutional
Date commercial thrift commercial thrift money Total money
banks institutions Total banks institutions Total funds(3) Non-M1 M2 funds(4)
—————————————————————————————————————————————————-
2007-Aug. 2989.7 838.1 3827.8 766.8 427.2 1193.9 888.4 5910.2 1602.5
Sep. 3010.5 829.3 3839.8 776.9 431.0 1207.8 906.3 5953.9 1705.0

Oct. 2997.8 826.9 3824.6 805.8 410.3 1216.1 914.8 5955.5 1797.9
Nov. 3030.4 829.4 3859.8 822.5 396.7 1219.2 935.8 6014.8 1872.3
Dec. 3043.6 827.9 3871.5 822.6 395.9 1218.5 968.7 6058.7 1941.2

2008-Jan. 3022.3 828.0 3850.3 825.0 400.5 1225.4 997.9 6073.6 1986.5
Feb. 3066.5 835.8 3902.3 826.6 400.6 1227.2 1036.5 6166.0 2104.0
Mar. 3132.7 858.5 3991.1 820.5 396.1 1216.5 1059.6 6267.2 2157.8

Apr. 3159.0 869.3 4028.4 816.2 394.9 1211.0 1070.7 6310.1 2174.4
May 3128.5 884.1 4012.6 814.0 390.1 1204.0 1038.7 6255.3 2196.8
June 3135.7 900.8 4036.5 815.8 384.0 1199.8 1027.6 6263.8 2221.9

July 3125.7 900.8 4026.5 830.3 379.9 1210.2 1035.3 6271.9 2217.0
Aug. 3122.2 891.0 4013.2 855.3 382.3 1237.7 1039.4 6290.2 2262.0
Sep. 3164.2 860.0 4024.2 878.2 379.9 1258.0 1043.7 6326.0 2216.9

Oct. 3235.4 779.8 4015.2 969.3 347.6 1316.9 1081.5 6413.6 2209.8
Nov. 3250.7 767.7 4018.4 999.3 353.4 1352.7 1078.6 6449.7 2324.8
Dec. 3314.4 766.2 4080.6 1018.6 354.9 1373.4 1092.4 6546.5 2435.3

Week ending:
2008-Dec. 1 3240.9 764.6 4005.4 1010.4 351.1 1361.5 1087.4 6454.3 2376.3
8 3338.4 772.7 4111.1 1014.2 353.0 1367.3 1093.1 6571.4 2399.9
15 3350.9 770.4 4121.3 1018.2 353.7 1371.9 1092.7 6586.0 2434.4
22 3312.4 763.2 4075.6 1021.1 355.6 1376.6 1093.3 6545.5 2431.7
29 3264.1 759.4 4023.4 1021.7 355.7 1377.4 1090.6 6491.4 2468.7

2009-Jan. 5 3357.7 771.7 4129.4 1021.3 356.8 1378.1 1094.8 6602.3 2487.7
12 3421.9 776.9 4198.8 1020.2 357.0 1377.2 1109.0 6685.0 2528.0
19p 3445.2 772.4 4217.5 1018.7 357.7 1376.4 1105.7 6699.6 2558.5
26p 3389.6 766.1 4155.6 1015.5 358.1 1373.6 1098.3 6627.5 2536.4

————————————————————————————————————————————————–
1. Savings deposits include money market deposit accounts.
2. Small-denomination time deposits are those issued in amounts of less than $100,000. All IRA and Keogh account balances at commercial banks and
thrift institutions are subtracted from small time deposits.
3. IRA and Keogh account balances at money market mutual funds are subtracted from retail money funds.
4. Institutional money funds are not part of non-M1 M2.

p preliminary
Components may not add to totals due to rounding.
1

H.6 (508)
Table 7
OTHER MEMORANDUM ITEMS
Billions of dollars, not seasonally adjusted
——————————————————————————————————————————————————————————–
U.S. government deposits IRA and Keogh Accounts
Demand deposits Time and ————————————————————– —————————————————-
at banks due to savings Demand Note Time and
Date ————————– deposits due to deposits Balance balances savings At
Foreign Foreign foreign banks at at at Total deposits at At At money
commercial official and official commercial Federal depository cash commercial commercial thrift market
banks institutions institutions banks Reserve institutions(1) balance banks banks institutions funds Total
——————————————————————————————————————————————————————————–
2007-Aug. 7.3 1.4 40.5 1.0 4.9 20.2 26.1 1.4 209.6 120.6 219.4 549.6
Sep. 7.4 1.5 41.4 3.1 5.0 39.7 47.8 1.4 210.8 121.1 225.0 556.9

Oct. 7.3 1.5 42.5 1.4 4.9 18.3 24.7 1.7 211.1 122.9 230.3 564.3
Nov. 7.0 1.4 43.8 1.0 5.1 10.5 16.6 2.2 211.0 125.6 235.2 571.8
Dec. 6.7 1.4 45.1 1.3 5.9 24.4 31.5 2.7 210.8 128.3 240.1 579.2

2008-Jan. 7.3 1.4 45.6 3.4 5.5 19.7 28.6 3.0 212.1 130.3 247.6 590.0
Feb. 8.4 1.5 45.6 1.1 4.8 13.4 19.3 3.4 214.2 131.7 256.2 602.2
Mar. 9.4 1.5 45.5 1.3 5.2 17.7 24.2 3.7 216.3 133.2 264.9 614.4

Apr. 9.3 1.5 45.0 7.9 5.3 26.3 39.6 3.4 217.1 135.6 267.4 620.1
May 8.4 1.4 44.2 1.4 4.8 32.5 38.6 2.7 217.0 138.5 265.8 621.3
June 7.4 1.3 43.4 3.0 5.0 16.2 24.2 2.0 216.8 141.5 264.2 622.6

July 7.7 1.3 40.8 1.2 5.1 9.7 16.0 2.0 219.3 142.3 262.6 e 624.2 e
Aug. 8.6 1.5 37.1 1.2 4.8 7.7 13.8 2.3 223.3 141.8 261.0 e 626.1 e
Sep. 9.6 1.5 33.5 3.5 5.8 16.4 25.6 2.7 227.2 141.2 259.5 e 627.9 e

Oct. 10.1 e 1.6 e 31.4 e 1.8 33.9 24.9 60.6 2.9 e 229.7 e 141.0 e 258.6 e 629.3 e
Nov. 10.1 e 1.7 e 31.4 e 1.3 55.8 5.2 62.4 2.9 e 230.3 e 141.3 e 258.6 e 630.2 e
Dec. 10.1 e 1.8 e 31.4 e 1.4 90.2 1.9 93.5 2.9 e 230.9 e 141.6 e 258.6 e 631.1 e

2008-Dec. 1 1.3 47.7 2.0 50.9
8 1.1 56.1 1.9 59.1
15 1.3 57.3 1.9 60.5
22 1.3 126.5 1.9 129.7
29 1.6 117.6 2.0 121.1

2009-Jan. 5 1.9 79.9 1.8 83.6
12 2.6 44.8 2.0 49.4
19p 4.2 33.3 1.8 39.3
26p 5.4 54.7 2.0 62.1

——————————————————————————————————————————————————————————–
1. Source: Daily Treasury statement.

e estimated
p preliminary
Components may not add to totals due to rounding.

Source: Federal Reserve Board

• Initial Claims: 626,000
• Change from Last Week: Up 35,000
• 4-Week Moving Average: 582,250
• Insured Unemployment Rate: 3.6%
• Insured Unemployment: 4,788,000

All numbers seasonally adjusted.

Technorati Tags: jobless, unemployment, claims

UNEMPLOYMENT INSURANCE WEEKLY CLAIMS REPORT
          SEASONALLY ADJUSTED DATA

In the week ending Jan. 31, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 626,000, an increase of 35,000 from the previous week’s revised figure of 591,000. The 4-week moving average was 582,250, an increase of 39,000 from the previous week’s revised average of 543,250.
The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 3.6 percent for the week ending Jan. 24, unchanged from the prior week’s unrevised rate of 3.6 percent.
The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending Jan. 24 was 4,788,000, an increase of 20,000 from the preceding week’s revised level of 4,768,000. The 4-week moving average was 4,672,000, an increase of 44,000 from the preceding week’s revised average of 4,628,000.  
UNADJUSTED DATA
The advance number of actual initial claims under state programs, unadjusted, totaled 676,590 in the week ending Jan. 31, an increase of 56,478 from the previous week. There were 380,138 initial claims in the comparable week in 2008.
The advance unadjusted insured unemployment rate was 4.3 percent during the week ending Jan. 24, unchanged from the prior week. The advance unadjusted number for persons claiming UI benefits in state programs totaled 5,793,331, an increase of 62,724 from the preceding week. A year earlier, the rate was 2.5 percent and the volume was 3,344,396.
Extended benefits were available in North Carolina, Oregon, and Rhode Island during the week ending Jan. 17.
Initial claims for UI benefits by former Federal civilian employees totaled 1,586 in the week ending Jan. 24, a decrease of 252 from the prior week. There were 2,719 initial claims by newly discharged veterans, an increase of 498 from the preceding week.
There were 20,857 former Federal civilian employees claiming UI benefits for the week ending Jan. 17, an increase of 632 from the previous week. Newly discharged veterans claiming benefits totaled 26,742, a decrease of 477 from the prior week.
States reported 1,738,162 persons claiming EUC (Emergency Unemployment Compensation) benefits for the week ending Jan. 17, an increase of 19,476 from the prior week.
The highest insured unemployment rates in the week ending Jan. 17 were in Michigan (8.9 percent), Idaho (6.6), Oregon (6.6), Pennsylvania (6.2), South Carolina (6.0), Wisconsin (6.0), Alaska (5.6), Nevada (5.5), Indiana (5.4), and Montana (5.3).
The largest increases in initial claims for the week ending Jan. 24 were in Wisconsin (+1,355), Rhode Island (+689), Virginia (+682), Oklahoma (+406), and Puerto Rico (+314), while the largest decreases were in Florida (-14,703), California (-12,074), Michigan (-11,639), Georgia (-9,949), and Ohio
(-9,926).

Source: Employment and Training Administration

• Market Composite Index: 795.4
• Change: Up 8.6%
• Purchase Index: 261.4
• Change: Down 11.2%
• Refinance Index: 3906.3
• Change: Up 15.8%
• 4-Week Moving Average: Down 9.2%
• 30-year Fixed Rate: 5.28% with 1.12 points

Technorati Tags: mortgages, mortgage, interest, rates, applications, housing market

Mortgage Applications Increase in Latest MBA Weekly Survey

WASHINGTON, D.C. (February 4, 2009) — The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) today released its Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending January 30, 2009.  The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, was 795.4, an increase of 8.6 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from 732.1 one week earlier.  On an unadjusted basis, the Index increased 28.1 percent compared with the previous week and decreased 26.9 percent compared with the same week one year earlier.
The Refinance Index increased 15.8 percent to 3906.3 from 3373.9 the previous week and the seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 11.2 percent to 261.4 from 294.3 one week earlier.  The seasonally adjusted Conventional Purchase Index decreased 11.3 percent while the Government Purchase Index (largely FHA) decreased 10.9 percent.
 
The four week moving average for the seasonally adjusted Market Index is down 9.2 percent.  The four week moving average is down 4.7 percent for the seasonally adjusted Purchase Index, while this average is down 10.7 percent for the Refinance Index.
The refinance share of mortgage activity increased to 73.2 percent of total applications from 72.8 percent the previous week. The adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) share of activity decreased to 2.1 percent from 2.4 percent of total applications from the previous week.
The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages increased to 5.28 percent from 5.22 percent, with points increasing to 1.12 from 1.05 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent loan-to-value (LTV) ratio loans.
The average contract interest rate for 15-year fixed-rate mortgages increased to 5.15 percent from 4.98 percent, with points increasing to 1.21 from 1.13 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent LTV loans.
The average contract interest rate for one-year ARMs increased to 6.09 percent from 5.96 percent, with points increasing to 0.07 from 0.06 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent LTV loans.

Source: Mortgage Bankers Association

• Pending Home Sales Index: 87.7
• Monthly Change: Up 6.3%
• Yearly Change: Up 2.1%
• South Yearly Change: Up 1.6%
• Northeast Yearly Change: Down 14.5%
• Midwest Yearly Change: Down 1.2%
• West Yearly Change: up 17.5%

Technorati Tags: pending home sales, home sales, index

Pending Home Sales Show Healthy Gain
WASHINGTON, February 03, 2009
Pending home sales increased as more buyers took advantage of improved affordability conditions, according to the National Association of Realtors®. Big gains in the South and Midwest offset modest declines in other regions.
The Pending Home Sales Index,1 a forward-looking indicator based on contracts signed in December, rose 6.3 percent to 87.7 from an upwardly revised reading of 82.5 in November, and is 2.1 percent higher than December 2007 when it was 85.9.
Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, said the index shows a modest rebound. “The monthly gain in pending home sales, spurred by buyers responding to lower home prices and mortgage interest rates, more than offset an index decline in the previous month,” he said. “The biggest gains were in areas with the biggest improvements in affordability.”
NAR’s Housing Affordability index rose 10.9 percent in December to 158.8, the highest on record.2 The HAI shows that the relationship between home prices, mortgage interest rates and family income is the most favorable since tracking began in 1970.
“Significant uncertainty still clouds the housing market despite improved affordability conditions. For a sustainable housing market recovery and, hence, sustainable economic recovery, we need a significant housing stimulus and mortgage availability for qualified borrowers,” Yun added.
The PHSI in the Northeast slipped 1.7 percent to 62.1 in December and is 14.5 percent below a year ago. In the Midwest the index jumped 12.8 percent to 83.7 but remains 1.2 percent below December 2007. The index in the South surged 13.0 percent to 96.8 in December and is 1.6 percent above a year ago. In the West, the index fell 3.7 percent to 97.5 but remains 17.5 percent higher than December 2007.
NAR President Charles McMillan, a broker with Coldwell Banker Residential Brokerage in Dallas-Fort Worth, said the rise in contract signings is encouraging. “However, housing activity remains weak compared with potential demand, and the market is fragile given the economic backdrop,” he said.
“We can’t take our eye off the need to stimulate housing, which can set the foundation for an economic recovery,” McMillan said. “Last week’s actions in the House to eliminate the repayment feature on the first-time home buyer tax credit, and to raise mortgage loan limits, are helpful. However, we need to take additional steps to meaningfully draw down inventory and stabilize home prices.”
McMillan said some enhancements that could bring more buyers into the market include expanding the $7,500 tax credit to all home buyers and extending it until the end of 2009, and making loan limit increases permanent. “We also need to direct funds in the Troubled Asset Relief Program to add liquidity to the mortgage market, buy down mortgage interest rates and increase other forms of credit,” he said.
Yun said the outlook for housing and the economy is murky. “Although Congress and the Obama administration are taking steps to help the economy, the stimulus package must deal with the root cause of the economic downturn, and apply the right fix to turn it around. If housing is ignored, a significant downward overshooting of home prices would continue to drag the economy down independent of the scale of the stimulus,” Yun said.

Source: National Association of Realtors

• Total Nonfarm Private Employment: 112,702,000
• Monthly Change: Down 522,000
• Products Producing Sector: 20,481,000
• Monthly Change: Down 243,000
• Service Producing Sector: 92,221,000
• Monthly Change: Down 279,000

Technorati Tags: ADP, employment, jobs, payroll, report

Nonfarm private employment decreased 522,000 from December 2008 to January 2009 on a
seasonally adjusted basis, according to the ADP National Employment Report®. The estimated
change of employment from November to December 2008 was revised up by 34,000, from a
decline of 693,000 to a decline of 659,000.
January’s ADP Report estimates nonfarm private employment in the service-providing sector fell
by 279,000. Employment in the goods-producing sector declined 243,000, the twenty-fourth
consecutive monthly decline. Employment in the manufacturing sector declined 160,000, its
twenty-eighth decline over the last twenty-nine months.
Large businesses, defined as those with 500 or more workers, saw employment decline 92,000,
while medium-size businesses with between 50 and 499 workers declined 255,000. Employment
among small-size businesses, defined as those with fewer than 50 workers, declined 175,000.
Sharply falling employment at medium- and small-size businesses clearly indicates that the
recession continues to spread well beyond manufacturing and housing-related activities.
In January, construction employment dropped 83,000. This was its twenty-second consecutive
monthly decline, and brings the total decline in construction jobs since the peak in January 2007
to 923,000.

ADP Employment Report – January 2009 [PDF]

Source: ADP

• Personal Income: Down $25.3 billion
• Monthly Change: Down 0.2%
• Real Disposable Personal Income: Up 0.3%
• Personal Spending (Outlays): $10,219.3 billion (annual)
• Monthly Change: Down $104 billion

Technorati Tags: personal income, spending, disposable income, real DPI

PERSONAL INCOME AND OUTLAYS
December 2008
Personal income decreased $25.3 billion, or 0.2 percent, and disposable personal income (DPI)
decreased $25.1 billion, or 0.2 percent, in December, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis.
Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) decreased $102.4 billion, or 1.0 percent. In November,
personal income decreased $44.0 billion, or 0.4 percent, DPI decreased $33.9 billion, or 0.3 percent, and
PCE decreased $77.8 billion, or 0.8 percent, based on revised estimates.

Real disposable income increased 0.3 percent in December, compared with an increase of 0.8
percent in November. Real PCE decreased 0.5 percent, in contrast to an increase of 0.3 percent. The
price index for PCE decreased 0.5 percent, compared with a decrease of 1.1 percent.

2008
Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec.
(Percent change from preceding month)
Personal income, current dollars 0.3 0.0 -0.1 -0.4 -0.2
Disposable personal income:
Current dollars -1.1 0.1 0.0 -0.3 -0.2
Chained (2000) dollars -1.1 0.0 0.5 0.8 0.3
Personal consumption expenditures:
Current dollars -0.2 -0.4 -1.1 -0.8 -1.0
Chained (2000) dollars -0.1 -0.5 -0.6 0.3 -0.5

Wages and salaries

Private wage and salary disbursements decreased $23.5 billion in December, compared with
a decrease of $12.1 billion in November. Goods-producing industries’ payrolls decreased $15.7
billion, compared with a decrease of $4.4 billion; manufacturing payrolls decreased $9.6 billion,
compared with a decrease of $3.1 billion. Services-producing industries’ payrolls decreased
$7.8 billion, compared with a decrease $7.7 billion. Government wage and salary disbursements
increased $2.3 billion, compared with an increase of $1.7 billion.

Other personal income

Proprietors’ income decreased $6.8 billion in December, compared with a decrease of $17.6
billion in November. Farm proprietors’ income decreased $0.9 billion, compared with a decrease of
$1.3 billion. Nonfarm proprietors’ income decreased $5.9 billion, compared with a decrease of
$16.3 billion.

Rental income of persons increased $4.3 billion in December, compared with an increase of
$2.8 billion in November. Personal income receipts on assets (personal interest income plus
personal dividend income) decreased $29.0 billion, compared with a decrease of $28.8 billion.

Personal current transfer receipts increased $24.4 billion in December, compared with an
increase of $7.5 billion in November. The December increase in personal current transfer receipts
reflected retroactive social security benefits payments of $7.4 billion at an annual rate, resulting
from a recalculation of the earnings base underlying the benefits for recent retirees. The December
increase in personal current transfer receipts also reflected provisions of the Supplemental
Appropriations Act of 2008, which provides up to 13 weeks of additional unemployment
compensation benefits to those who have exhausted their regular unemployment benefits. The
additional unemployment benefits boosted the level of personal current transfer receipts by $7.1
billion in December.

Contributions for government social insurance — a subtraction in calculating personal income –
decreased $3.1 billion in December, compared with a decrease of $1.9 billion in November.

Personal current taxes and disposable personal income

Personal current taxes decreased $0.2 billion in December, compared with a decrease of $10.1
billion in November. Disposable personal income (DPI) — personal income less personal current
taxes — decreased $25.1 billion, or 0.2 percent, in December, compared with a decrease of $33.9
billion, or 0.3 percent, in November.

Personal outlays and personal saving

Personal outlays — PCE, personal interest payments, and personal current transfer payments
decreased $104.6 billion in December, compared with a decrease of $80.0 billion in November.
PCE decreased $102.4 billion, compared with a decrease of $77.8 billion.

Personal saving — DPI less personal outlays — was $378.6 billion in December, compared
with $299.1 billion in November. Personal saving as a percentage of disposable personal
income was 3.6 percent in December, compared with 2.8 percent in November. For a
comparison of personal saving in BEA’s national income and product accounts with personal
saving in the Federal Reserve Board’s flow of funds accounts and data on changes in net worth,
which help finance consumption, go to www.bea.gov/national/nipaweb/Nipa-Frb.asp.

Real DPI and real PCE

Real DPI — DPI adjusted to remove price changes — increased 0.3 percent in December,
compared with an increase of 0.8 percent in November.

Real PCE — PCE adjusted to remove price changes — decreased 0.5 percent in December, in
contrast to an increase of 0.3 percent in November. Purchases of durable goods decreased 0.8
percent, in contrast to an increase of 1.0 percent. Purchases of nondurable goods decreased 1.8
percent in December, in contrast to an increase of 0.9 percent in November. Purchases of services
increased 0.1 percent, in contrast to a decrease of less than 0.1 percent.

PCE price index — the price index for PCE decreased 0.5 percent in December, compared with
a decrease of 1.1 percent in November. The PCE price index, excluding food and energy, was
essentially unchanged in December and in November.

Revisions

Estimates have been revised for October and November. Changes in personal income, current-
dollar and chained (2000) dollar DPI, and current-dollar and chained (2000) dollar PCE for October
and November — revised and as published in last month’s release — are shown below.

Change from preceding month
October November
Previous Revised Previous Revised Previous Revised Previous Revised
(Billions of dollars) (Percent) (Billions of dollars) (Percent)
Personal Income:
Current dollars…………………. 11.3 -11.3 0.1 -0.1 -20.7 -44.0 -0.2 -0.4
Disposable personal income:
Current dollars…………………. 16.7 -2.0 0.2 0.0 -11.8 -33.9 -0.1 -0.3
Chained (2000) dollars…………… 61.2 47.0 0.7 0.5 88.1 70.7 1.0 0.8
Personal consumption expenditures:
Current dollars…………………. -102.6 -116.2 -1.0 -1.1 -56.1 -77.8 -0.6 -0.8
Chained (2000) dollars…………… -38.6 -48.7 -0.5 -0.6 45.6 28.5 0.6 0.3

Personal Income and Outlays – December 2008 [PDF]

Source: Commerce Department, Bureau of Economic Analysis