• Current Month Index: 19
• Monthly Change: Down 1
• Current 1-Family Sales Index: 17
• Monthly Change: Down 1
• Sales Expectations Index: 27
• Monthly Change: Down 3
• Buyer Traffic Index: 17
• Monthly Change: Down 2
• South Regional: 24
• West Regional: 17
• Northeast Regional: 22
• Midwest Regional: 15

Technorati Tags: Housing Market Index, housing market, homebuilder, confidence

Builder Confidence Edges Downward In May

May 15, 2008 - Home builders remained considerably downbeat as market conditions continued to erode in May, according to the NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI), released today. The HMI fell a single point to 19, bringing it within one point of the record low 18 set in December 2007 (the series began in January of 1985).

“With the HMI hovering in the historically low two-point range that’s prevailed over the past nine months, the message is very clear: The single-family housing market is still deteriorating and Congress and the Administration must move immediately to enact legislation that will help reverse the trend,” said NAHB President Sandy Dunn, a home builder from Point Pleasant, W.Va. “A temporary home-buyer tax credit is just the incentive that many prospective home buyers need to go forward with a purchase and help kick-start a housing and economic recovery.”

Both the House and Senate have approved bills creating a temporary home buyer tax credit of up to $7,500 for qualified buyers, but the legislation has yet be crafted into a comprehensive bill that can be sent to President Bush for his signature.

“Despite the Federal Reserve’s concerted efforts to lower short-term interest rates, free up credit markets and shore up the national economy, the housing market has shown no evidence of improvement thus far. In fact, conditions have continued to deteriorate in recent times,” said NAHB Chief Economist David Seiders. “The latest HMI shows that even fewer builders now foresee market conditions improving over the next six months compared with our April survey, and builder ratings of buyer traffic through model homes also have dropped off over the past month on a seasonally adjusted basis. This certainly adds fuel to the argument that targeted policy stimulus, in the form of a temporary tax credit for home buyers, is essential to halt the housing downswing and remove the heavy drag being exerted by housing on overall economic growth.”

Derived from a monthly survey that NAHB has been conducting for more than 20 years, the NAHB/Wells Fargo HMI gauges builder perceptions of current single-family home sales and sales expectations for the next six months as “good,” “fair” or “poor.” The survey also asks builders to rate traffic of prospective buyers as either “high to very high,” “average” or “low to very low.” Scores for each component are then used to calculate a seasonally adjusted index where any number over 50 indicates that more builders view sales conditions as good than poor.

The HMI’s component index gauging current sales conditions declined one point to 17 in May — its lowest level since the series began in January 1985. Meanwhile, the component gauging sales expectations for the next six months declined three points to 27, and the component gauging traffic of prospective buyers declined two points to 17.

The HMI fell in three out of four regions in May, with a four-point decline to 18 registered in the Northeast, a three-point decline to 12 registered in the Midwest (also an all-time low) and a two-point decline to 22 posted in the South. The West posted a three-point gain to 20 this month but remained well below the level of a year earlier.

Housing Market Index Chart - May 2008

Source: National Association of Homebuilders and Wells Fargo

• M1 Seasonally Adjusted Prior Month: $1368.0 billion
• M1 4-Week Average: $1369.1 billion
• M1 Annual Change (Unadjusted): Down $7.5billion
• M2 Seasonally Adjusted Prior Month: $7677.0 billion
• M2 4-Week Average: $7666.8.3 billion
• M2 Annual Change (Unadjusted): Up $471.8 billion

Technorati Tags: money supply, Federal Reserve, M1, M2

MONEY STOCK MEASURES
Billions of dollars
—————————————————————————————————————————————————-
Date M1(1) M2(2) M1(1) M2(2)
—————————– ———————————————————— ——————————————————-
Seasonally adjusted Not seasonally adjusted
—————————– ———————————————————— ——————————————————-
2006-May 1384.2 6802.9 1391.5 6784.2
June 1375.4 6831.9 1378.4 6834.0
July 1370.7 6857.4 1367.8 6851.8
Aug. 1370.1 6878.1 1369.8 6867.4
Sep. 1361.0 6901.5 1346.5 6892.2
Oct. 1367.9 6954.0 1359.4 6934.0
Nov. 1371.0 6989.9 1367.5 6993.6
Dec. 1366.5 7031.9 1387.3 7067.6

2007-Jan. 1372.2 7081.8 1368.4 7064.9
Feb. 1367.1 7109.0 1346.9 7075.5
Mar. 1369.3 7159.4 1378.2 7181.8
Apr. 1377.2 7206.8 1391.6 7266.5
May 1374.8 7227.0 1383.6 7206.3
June 1365.4 7243.6 1367.9 7248.6
July 1368.0 7267.5 1365.2 7251.5
Aug. 1369.5 7319.2 1368.6 7309.9
Sep. 1366.1 7346.5 1350.8 7335.1
Oct. 1369.2 7369.7 1361.3 7345.6
Nov. 1365.7 7398.0 1361.9 7399.5
Dec. 1366.3 7428.0 1386.0 7466.1

2008-Jan. 1367.0 7477.4 1364.1 7463.2
Feb. 1370.3 7581.8 1349.1 7549.7
Mar. 1372.0 7661.5 1381.4 7692.6
Apr. p 1368.0 7677.0 1384.1 7738.3
—————————————————————————————————————————————————-
Percent change at seasonally adjusted annual rates M1 M2
—————————————————————————————————————————————————-
3 Months from Jan. 2008 TO Apr. 2008 0.3 10.7
6 Months from Oct. 2007 TO Apr. 2008 -0.2 8.3
12 Months from Apr. 2007 TO Apr. 2008 -0.7 6.5
—————————————————————————————————————————————————-
1. M1 consists of (1) currency outside the U.S. Treasury, Federal Reserve Banks, and the vaults of depository institutions; (2) traveler’s checks of
nonbank issuers; (3) demand deposits at commercial banks (excluding those amounts held by depository institutions, the U.S. government, and
foreign banks and official institutions) less cash items in the process of collection and Federal Reserve float; and (4) other checkable deposits
(OCDs), consisting of negotiable order of withdrawal (NOW) and automatic transfer service (ATS) accounts at depository institutions, credit union
share draft accounts, and demand deposits at thrift institutions. Seasonally adjusted M1 is constructed by summing currency, traveler’s checks,
demand deposits, and OCDs, each seasonally adjusted separately.
2. M2 consists of M1 plus (1) savings deposits (including money market deposit accounts); (2) small-denomination time deposits (time deposits in
amounts of less than $100,000), less individual retirement account (IRA) and Keogh balances at depository institutions; and (3) balances in
retail money market mutual funds, less IRA and Keogh balances at money market mutual funds. Seasonally adjusted M2 is constructed by summing
savings deposits, small-denomination time deposits, and retail money funds, each seasonally adjusted separately, and adding this result to
seasonally adjusted M1.

p preliminary
Components may not add to totals due to rounding.
1

H.6 (508)
Table 2
MONEY STOCK MEASURES
Billions of Dollars
——————————————————————————————————————————————————–
M1 M2 M1 M2
——————————– ——————————– ——————————– ———————————–
Period Ending 13-week 4-week week 13-week 4-week week 13-week 4-week week 13-week 4-week week
average average average average average average average average average average average average
—————– —————————————————————– ——————————————————————–
Seasonally adjusted Not seasonally adjusted
—————– —————————————————————– ——————————————————————–
2008-Feb. 11 1365.6 1371.1 1360.3 7455.4 7526.3 7565.1 1370.6 1359.2 1309.9 7461.9 7483.4 7528.2
18 1366.0 1368.4 1363.5 7469.5 7551.6 7577.3 1370.0 1353.0 1339.0 7472.4 7505.2 7544.9
25 1366.7 1369.9 1370.5 7483.7 7575.5 7610.3 1367.2 1348.3 1367.5 7483.9 7535.9 7556.3

Mar. 3 1368.4 1372.2 1394.3 7500.0 7594.3 7624.4 1366.5 1353.3 1396.7 7498.2 7561.7 7617.3
10 1368.0 1373.6 1366.0 7516.3 7610.8 7631.2 1367.0 1360.0 1336.6 7514.2 7595.7 7664.4
17 1367.8 1372.8 1360.3 7535.1 7633.8 7669.4 1367.4 1363.3 1352.2 7532.5 7636.3 7707.2
24 1368.3 1373.1 1371.9 7555.7 7656.5 7700.8 1366.2 1371.3 1399.8 7550.6 7672.4 7700.5
31 1369.6 1369.6 1380.0 7573.4 7668.0 7670.5 1365.2 1380.8 1434.7 7568.9 7695.4 7709.3

Apr. 7 1368.8 1366.8 1355.1 7591.9 7680.2 7680.1 1364.9 1385.1 1353.7 7591.4 7726.4 7788.6
14 1369.1 1364.9 1352.5 7610.3 7679.2 7665.3 1366.5 1383.8 1346.8 7616.3 7747.2 7790.3
21 1368.9 1364.9 1372.0 7627.0 7677.3 7693.2 1369.0 1383.0 1396.6 7640.4 7764.8 7771.0
28p 1370.1 1364.8 1379.5 7637.7 7673.1 7653.8 1371.7 1379.9 1422.6 7656.2 7747.1 7638.4

May 5p 1369.1 1369.1 1372.5 7645.9 7666.8 7654.9 1372.1 1386.7 1380.7 7667.3 7714.5 7658.2

——————————————————————————————————————————————————–
Percent change at seasonally adjusted annual rates M1 M2
——————————————————————————————————————————————————–
Thirteen weeks ending May 5, 2008
from thirteen weeks ending:
Feb. 4, 2008 (13 weeks previous) 0.9 11.0
Nov. 5, 2007 (26 weeks previous) 0.1 8.0
May 7, 2007 (52 weeks previous) -0.1 6.7
——————————————————————————————————————————————————–
Note: Special caution should be taken in interpreting week-to-week changes in money supply data, which are highly volatile and subject to revision.

p preliminary
Components may not add to totals due to rounding.
1

H.6 (508)
Table 3
SEASONALLY ADJUSTED COMPONENTS OF M1
Billions of dollars
——————————————————————————————————————————————
Other Checkable Deposits
——————————————————
At commercial At thrift
Date Currency(1) Traveler’s checks(2) Demand Deposits(3) banks(4) institutions(5) Total
——————————————————————————————————————————————
2006-Dec. 748.9 6.7 305.9 176.8 128.2 305.0

2007-Jan. 750.5 6.7 307.4 177.6 130.0 307.6
Feb. 751.0 6.6 304.6 176.1 128.7 304.9
Mar. 752.5 6.6 302.7 176.2 131.4 307.5

Apr. 754.4 6.6 305.8 176.8 133.6 310.4
May 755.4 6.6 304.1 175.8 132.9 308.7
June 756.0 6.5 301.5 171.2 130.3 301.5

July 758.0 6.5 301.0 171.5 131.1 302.5
Aug. 758.1 6.4 302.0 171.1 131.8 302.9
Sep. 759.2 6.4 296.4 171.0 133.0 304.1

Oct. 761.5 6.4 296.9 172.3 132.2 304.4
Nov. 761.1 6.3 296.9 171.6 129.8 301.4
Dec. 758.7 6.3 295.2 173.2 133.0 306.1

2008-Jan. 757.7 6.2 295.1 173.2 134.7 307.9
Feb. 758.6 6.2 293.6 176.8 135.1 311.9
Mar. 761.7 6.2 295.2 174.6 134.3 308.9

Apr. p 759.7 6.2 291.7 174.7 135.7 310.4

Week Ending:
2008-Mar. 10 761.5 6.2 291.6 172.4 134.3 306.7
17 761.8 6.2 287.4 170.8 134.1 304.9
24 763.2 6.2 293.9 174.6 134.1 308.7
31 761.2 6.2 300.0 179.1 133.4 312.6

Apr. 7 760.2 6.2 286.8 167.3 134.6 301.9
14 759.5 6.2 283.4 169.4 134.0 303.5
21 759.5 6.2 290.9 178.6 136.8 315.4
28p 759.5 6.2 296.5 180.8 136.5 317.3

May 5p 759.7 6.2 297.5 170.8 138.4 309.2

——————————————————————————————————————————————
1. Currency outside U.S. Treasury, Federal Reserve Banks and the vaults of depository institutions.
2. Outstanding amount of U.S. dollar-denominated traveler’s checks of nonbank issuers. Traveler’s checks issued by depository institutions
are included in demand deposits.
3. Demand deposits at domestically chartered commercial banks, U.S. branches and agencies of foreign banks, and Edge Act corporations
(excluding those amounts held by depository institutions, the U.S. government, and foreign banks and official institutions) less cash
items in the process of collection and Federal Reserve float.
4. NOW and ATS balances at domestically chartered commercial banks, U.S. branches and agencies of foreign banks, and Edge Act corporations.
5. NOW and ATS balances at thrift institutions, credit union share draft balances, and demand deposits at thrift institutions.

e estimated
p preliminary
Components may not add to totals due to rounding.
1

H.6 (508)
Table 4
SEASONALLY ADJUSTED COMPONENTS OF NON-M1 M2
Billions of dollars
—————————————————————————————————————————————————-
Savings Deposits(1) Small-denomination time deposit(2)
————————————— ————————————— Memorandum:
At At At At Retail Institutional
Date commercial thrift commercial thrift money Total money
banks institutions Total banks institutions Total funds(3) Non-M1 M2 funds(4)
—————————————————————————————————————————————————-
2006-Dec. 2904.0 792.9 3696.9 759.2 412.4 1171.6 796.8 5665.4 1348.2

2007-Jan. 2919.8 803.5 3723.2 762.0 414.8 1176.8 809.6 5709.7 1350.1
Feb. 2930.1 812.8 3742.9 766.4 414.9 1181.4 817.6 5741.9 1370.3
Mar. 2923.6 847.4 3771.0 756.6 428.3 1184.9 834.1 5790.1 1400.0

Apr. 2935.1 866.0 3801.2 758.3 430.6 1188.9 839.5 5829.5 1433.9
May 2938.7 878.0 3816.7 758.9 431.3 1190.2 845.3 5852.2 1473.8
June 2947.6 881.9 3829.5 760.2 430.3 1190.5 858.1 5878.2 1504.6

July 2965.1 871.2 3836.4 765.5 426.0 1191.5 871.6 5899.5 1537.2
Aug. 2994.7 868.1 3862.8 767.3 426.3 1193.6 893.3 5949.7 1615.4
Sep. 3008.6 857.1 3865.7 774.6 428.9 1203.5 911.3 5980.4 1698.0

Oct. 3011.0 859.0 3870.0 802.1 407.6 1209.7 920.8 6000.5 1782.3
Nov. 3027.2 856.8 3884.0 819.3 394.4 1213.7 934.5 6032.2 1841.6
Dec. 3034.1 853.6 3887.7 821.5 394.8 1216.3 957.7 6061.7 1882.8

2008-Jan. 3039.8 861.4 3901.2 823.7 399.9 1223.6 985.5 6110.4 1930.8
Feb. 3080.8 868.3 3949.0 825.4 400.7 1226.0 1036.5 6211.6 2071.7
Mar. 3123.0 884.4 4007.4 820.1 396.9 1217.0 1065.3 6289.6 2147.9

Apr. p 3124.7 888.6 4013.3 814.5 396.4 1210.9 1084.8 6309.0 2189.1

Week ending:
2008-Mar. 10 3120.6 877.3 3997.9 821.3 396.6 1217.9 1049.4 6265.2 2131.9
17 3145.7 885.6 4031.3 820.4 396.6 1217.0 1060.8 6309.1 2144.8
24 3141.4 894.5 4036.0 820.2 397.6 1217.8 1075.2 6328.9 2148.4
31 3104.8 888.7 3993.5 817.8 396.6 1214.4 1082.7 6290.6 2179.1

Apr. 7 3140.8 880.7 4021.4 816.4 396.6 1213.0 1090.6 6325.0 2179.3
14 3133.3 878.1 4011.3 815.2 396.7 1211.9 1089.5 6312.8 2204.0
21 3136.9 889.6 4026.5 814.0 396.6 1210.6 1084.1 6321.2 2187.7
28p 3087.5 899.0 3986.5 813.1 396.1 1209.2 1078.7 6274.4 2194.3

May 5p 3106.8 898.2 4005.0 811.4 395.7 1207.1 1070.3 6282.4 2156.5

—————————————————————————————————————————————————-
1. Savings deposits include money market deposit accounts.
2. Small-denomination time deposits are those issued in amounts of less than $100,000. All IRA and Keogh account balances at commercial banks and
thrift institutions are subtracted from small time deposits.
3. IRA and Keogh account balances at money market mutual funds are subtracted from retail money funds.
4. Institutional money funds are not part of non-M1 M2.

p preliminary
Components may not add to totals due to rounding.
1

H.6 (508)
Table 5
NOT SEASONALLY ADJUSTED COMPONENTS OF M1
Billions of dollars
——————————————————————————————————————————————
Other Checkable Deposits
——————————————————
At commercial At thrift
Date Currency(1) Traveler’s checks(2) Demand Deposits(3) banks(4) institutions(5) Total
——————————————————————————————————————————————
2006-Dec. 754.5 6.7 316.7 181.1 128.2 309.3

2007-Jan. 748.4 6.7 302.1 184.9 126.4 311.3
Feb. 750.7 6.6 291.5 173.6 124.4 298.0
Mar. 752.9 6.5 304.8 181.5 132.5 313.9

Apr. 754.2 6.5 307.6 185.7 137.6 323.3
May 756.0 6.5 307.2 180.4 133.4 313.8
June 756.5 6.6 303.2 169.0 132.6 301.7

July 758.3 6.6 302.3 165.2 132.7 297.9
Aug. 757.3 6.6 305.3 166.6 132.8 299.4
Sep. 756.7 6.5 290.2 164.4 133.1 297.4

Oct. 759.6 6.4 296.7 168.5 130.3 298.7
Nov. 762.2 6.3 298.0 166.9 128.5 295.4
Dec. 763.8 6.3 305.1 177.5 133.3 310.8

2008-Jan. 755.4 6.2 290.3 180.9 131.2 312.1
Feb. 758.6 6.1 279.9 174.2 130.3 304.5
Mar. 761.7 6.1 297.3 180.2 136.1 316.3

Apr. p 759.6 6.1 294.2 184.4 139.8 324.2

Week Ending:
2008-Mar. 10 762.4 6.1 263.7 171.0 133.4 304.4
17 761.7 6.1 278.1 172.8 133.5 306.3
24 762.5 6.1 311.9 184.0 135.4 319.3
31 760.3 6.1 333.5 194.3 140.5 334.8

Apr. 7 761.9 6.1 274.8 171.9 139.0 310.9
14 759.7 6.1 271.2 172.9 137.0 309.8
21 758.8 6.1 299.2 191.7 140.8 332.5
28p 758.4 6.1 318.8 198.4 140.8 339.2

May 5p 761.0 6.1 293.6 178.7 141.4 320.1

——————————————————————————————————————————————
1. Currency outside U.S. Treasury, Federal Reserve Banks and the vaults of depository institutions.
2. Outstanding amount of U.S. dollar-denominated traveler’s checks of nonbank issuers. Traveler’s checks issued by depository institutions
are included in demand deposits.
3. Demand deposits at domestically chartered commercial banks, U.S. branches and agencies of foreign banks, and Edge Act corporations
(excluding those amounts held by depository institutions, the U.S. government, and foreign banks and official institutions) less cash
items in the process of collection and Federal Reserve float.
4. NOW and ATS balances at domestically chartered commercial banks, U.S. branches and agencies of foreign banks, and Edge Act corporations.
5. NOW and ATS balances at thrift institutions, credit union share draft balances, and demand deposits at thrift institutions.

e estimated
p preliminary
Components may not add to totals due to rounding.
1

H.6 (508)
Table 6
NOT SEASONALLY ADJUSTED COMPONENTS OF NON-M1 M2
Billions of dollars
—————————————————————————————————————————————————-
Savings Deposits(1) Small-denomination time deposit(2)
————————————— ————————————— Memorandum:
At At At At Retail Institutional
Date commercial thrift commercial thrift money Total money
banks institutions Total banks institutions Total funds(3) Non-M1 M2 funds(4)
—————————————————————————————————————————————————-
2006-Dec. 2913.1 795.4 3708.6 758.6 412.1 1170.7 801.1 5680.4 1381.0

2007-Jan. 2903.1 798.9 3701.9 761.5 414.6 1176.0 818.6 5696.5 1382.9
Feb. 2915.2 808.6 3723.8 766.4 414.9 1181.3 823.5 5728.6 1382.3
Mar. 2928.4 848.8 3777.1 756.5 428.2 1184.7 841.8 5803.6 1396.9

Apr. 2967.8 875.7 3843.5 758.2 430.6 1188.8 842.5 5874.8 1416.4
May 2923.9 873.6 3797.5 757.5 430.5 1188.0 837.2 5822.7 1447.7
June 2957.3 884.8 3842.1 757.7 428.9 1186.7 852.0 5880.8 1478.5

July 2962.8 870.6 3833.4 763.6 425.0 1188.6 864.3 5886.3 1509.0
Aug. 2990.2 866.8 3856.9 767.3 426.2 1193.5 890.9 5941.4 1600.8
Sep. 3011.0 857.8 3868.8 776.5 430.0 1206.5 909.1 5984.4 1700.6

Oct. 2998.3 855.3 3853.6 805.2 409.2 1214.4 916.2 5984.2 1792.2
Nov. 3030.9 857.8 3888.7 821.8 395.6 1217.4 931.5 6037.7 1863.7
Dec. 3044.0 856.3 3900.3 821.6 394.8 1216.4 963.5 6080.1 1930.5

2008-Jan. 3022.0 856.3 3878.3 823.4 399.8 1223.3 997.6 6099.2 1974.7
Feb. 3065.8 864.1 3929.9 825.5 400.7 1226.1 1044.6 6200.6 2091.8
Mar. 3131.8 886.9 4018.7 819.8 396.7 1216.6 1075.9 6311.2 2146.2

Apr. p 3157.0 897.8 4054.8 814.1 396.3 1210.4 1089.0 6354.2 2163.4

Week ending:
2008-Mar. 10 3159.5 888.2 4047.7 821.1 396.5 1217.5 1062.6 6327.8 2142.7
17 3174.4 893.7 4068.1 820.0 396.4 1216.4 1070.5 6354.9 2141.1
24 3110.8 885.8 3996.6 819.9 397.4 1217.2 1086.7 6300.6 2138.6
31 3085.2 883.1 3968.3 817.7 396.5 1214.2 1092.1 6274.6 2171.5

Apr. 7 3220.2 902.9 4123.1 816.6 396.7 1213.3 1098.6 6434.9 2158.3
14 3227.0 904.3 4131.3 815.4 396.7 1212.1 1100.0 6443.5 2193.2
21 3173.8 900.1 4073.9 813.6 396.3 1209.9 1090.5 6374.3 2150.7
28p 3045.0 886.6 3931.6 812.1 395.7 1207.8 1076.4 6215.8 2164.0

May 5p 3116.3 900.9 4017.2 810.3 395.1 1205.4 1054.9 6277.5 2120.0

————————————————————————————————————————————————–
1. Savings deposits include money market deposit accounts.
2. Small-denomination time deposits are those issued in amounts of less than $100,000. All IRA and Keogh account balances at commercial banks and
thrift institutions are subtracted from small time deposits.
3. IRA and Keogh account balances at money market mutual funds are subtracted from retail money funds.
4. Institutional money funds are not part of non-M1 M2.

p preliminary
Components may not add to totals due to rounding.
1

H.6 (508)
Table 7
OTHER MEMORANDUM ITEMS
Billions of dollars, not seasonally adjusted
——————————————————————————————————————————————————————————–
U.S. government deposits IRA and Keogh Accounts
Demand deposits Time and ————————————————————– —————————————————-
at banks due to savings Demand Note Time and
Date ————————– deposits due to deposits Balance balances savings At
Foreign Foreign foreign banks at at at Total deposits at At At money
commercial official and official commercial Federal depository cash commercial commercial thrift market
banks institutions institutions banks Reserve institutions(1) balance banks banks institutions funds Total
——————————————————————————————————————————————————————————–
2006-Dec. 5.6 1.3 32.9 1.4 5.2 24.3 30.9 2.1 199.7 110.8 194.8 505.3

2007-Jan. 5.6 1.3 33.5 3.2 5.0 28.5 36.7 1.6 202.3 111.9 195.9 510.1
Feb. 6.0 1.3 34.4 1.0 4.9 17.8 23.7 1.6 202.7 113.7 197.3 513.7
Mar. 6.3 1.3 35.2 1.1 5.0 14.0 20.1 1.6 203.1 115.5 198.7 517.4

Apr. 6.6 1.3 36.3 8.5 6.3 24.6 39.4 1.5 204.1 117.0 201.4 522.5
May 6.8 1.3 37.5 1.0 6.2 40.4 47.6 1.5 205.6 118.1 205.1 528.9
June 7.0 1.3 38.7 2.6 5.0 25.9 33.5 1.5 207.1 119.3 208.8 535.1

July 7.2 1.4 39.7 1.1 4.7 13.4 19.2 1.4 208.4 120.0 213.6 542.1
Aug. 7.3 1.4 40.6 1.0 4.9 20.2 26.1 1.4 209.6 120.6 219.5 549.7
Sep. 7.4 1.5 41.4 3.1 5.0 39.7 47.8 1.4 210.7 121.1 225.2 557.0

Oct. 7.3 1.5 42.5 1.4 4.9 18.3 24.7 1.7 211.0 122.9 230.7 e 564.7 e
Nov. 7.0 1.4 43.8 1.0 5.1 10.5 16.6 2.2 210.8 125.6 235.9 e 572.4 e
Dec. 6.7 1.4 45.1 1.3 5.9 24.4 31.5 2.7 210.6 128.3 241.1 e 580.0 e

2008-Jan. 6.6 e 1.4 e 45.6 e 3.4 5.5 19.7 28.6 2.8 e 210.8 e 129.7 e 243.2 e 583.7 e
Feb. 6.6 e 1.4 e 45.6 e 1.1 4.8 13.4 19.3 2.8 e 211.4 e 130.2 e 243.2 e 584.7 e
Mar. 6.6 e 1.4 e 45.6 e 1.3 5.2 17.7 24.2 2.8 e 211.9 e 130.6 e 243.2 e 585.7 e

Apr. p 6.6 e 1.4 e 45.6 e 7.9 5.3 26.3 39.5 2.8 e 212.4 e 131.1 e 243.2 e 586.8 e

2008-Mar. 10 1.2 5.0 18.3 24.5
17 1.5 5.2 17.2 23.9
24 1.4 5.7 19.7 26.7
31 1.4 4.9 18.5 24.8

Apr. 7 2.1 5.7 15.7 23.5
14 3.7 4.4 2.0 10.1
21 12.5 5.6 11.7 29.8
28p 15.0 5.4 50.9 71.3

May 5p 1.8 5.2 86.4 93.4

——————————————————————————————————————————————————————————–
1. Source: Daily Treasury statement.

e estimated
p preliminary
Components may not add to totals due to rounding.

Money Supply h6 - May 15, 2008 [PDF]

Money Supply H6 - May15 2008 [text]

Source: Federal Reserve Board

• Initial Claims: 371,000
• Change from Last Week: Up 6,000
• 4-Week Moving Average: 365,750
• Insured Unemployment Rate: 2.3%
• Insured Unemployment: 3,060,000

All numbers seasonally adjusted.

Technorati Tags: jobless, unemployment, claims

UNEMPLOYMENT INSURANCE WEEKLY CLAIMS REPORT

SEASONALLY ADJUSTED DATA

In the week ending May 10, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 371,000, an increase of 6,000 from the previous week’s unrevised figure of 365,000. The 4-week moving average was 365,750, a decrease of 1,000 from the previous week’s revised average of 366,750.

The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 2.3 percent for the week ending May 3, unchanged from the prior week’s unrevised rate of 2.3 percent.

The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending May 3 was 3,060,000, an increase of 28,000 from the preceding week’s revised level of 3,032,000. The 4-week moving average was 3,017,000, an increase of 15,250 from the preceding week’s revised average of 3,001,750.

The fiscal year-to-date average for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment for all programs is 2,838,249.

UNADJUSTED DATA

The advance number of actual initial claims under state programs, unadjusted, totaled 322,942 in the week ending May 10, a decrease of 10,087 from the previous week. There were 258,516 initial claims in the comparable week in 2007.

The advance unadjusted insured unemployment rate was 2.1 percent during the week ending May 3, a decrease of 0.1 percentage point from the prior week. The advance unadjusted number for persons claiming UI benefits in state programs totaled 2,833,473, a decrease of 123,173 from the preceding week. A year earlier, the rate was 1.7 percent and the volume was 2,290,364.

Extended benefits were not available in any state during the week ending April 26.

Initial claims for UI benefits by former Federal civilian employees totaled 911 in the week ending May 3, an increase of 47 from the prior week. There were 1,370 initial claims by newly discharged veterans, a decrease of 26 from the preceding week.

There were 12,271 former Federal civilian employees claiming UI benefits for the week ending April 26, an increase of 485 from the previous week. Newly discharged veterans claiming benefits totaled 20,947, a decrease of 338 from the prior week.

The highest insured unemployment rates in the week ending April 26 were in Puerto Rico (4.3 percent), Alaska (4.2), Michigan (3.9), Oregon (3.3), California (3.1), Rhode Island (3.1), New Jersey (3.0), Pennsylvania (3.0), Vermont (3.0), and Wisconsin (2.9).

The largest increases in initial claims for the week ending May 3 were in New York (+11,414), Pennsylvania (+2,716), Wisconsin (+1,023), Virginia (+784), and Illinois (+781), while the largest decreases were in Massachusetts (-5,027), New Jersey (-3,259), Georgia (-2,935), Oregon (-2,011), and Michigan (-1,939).

FOOTNOTES
SA - Seasonally Adjusted Data
NSA -
Not Seasonally Adjusted Data
¹ - Prior year is comparable
to most recent data.

² - Most recent week used covered employment of 133,382,559 as denominator.

UNADJUSTED INITIAL CLAIMS FOR WEEK ENDED 05/03/2008 

STATES WITH A DECREASE OF MORE THAN 1,000 

STATES WITH AN INCREASE OF MORE THAN 1,000 

State Unemployment Claims Detail 050308

Source: EMployment and Training Administration

• Business Conditions Index: -3.2
• Monthly Change: Down 3.8
• New Orders Index: -0.5
• Prices Paid Index: 69.6
• Prices Received Index: 15.2
• Number of Employees Index: 1.1
• Average Workweek Index: 1.1

Technorati Tags: Federal Reserve, New York, Empire State, manufacturing, survey, index

The Empire State Manufacturing Survey indicates that manufacturing activity in New York State deteriorated slightly in May. The general business conditions index fell below zero, to
-3.2. The new orders index remained close to zero, and the shipments index, while positive, declined markedly. The prices paid index exceeded its earlier record high by a wide margin, reaching 69.6, while the prices received index dipped several points. Employment indexes hovered near zero. Future indexes were generally low and down from last month’s levels, suggesting that the outlook for the next six months remains subdued, particularly for employment.

Supplementary questions in the May survey focused on past and expected changes in the prices that firms pay for inputs and the prices that they charge their customers. Respondents estimated that the prices they paid had risen 8.7 percent, on average, over the past twelve months, and they expected such prices to rise by an average of 6.8 percent over the next twelve months. In contrast, firms’ selling prices were reported to have risen by an average of just 2.9 percent over the past twelve months, but were expected to accelerate for a 4.1 percent increase over the next twelve months.

Business Activity Declines
After a sharp rebound in April from depressed readings in February and March, the general business conditions index in May slipped back below zero, to -3.2. Roughly 23 percent of respondents reported that conditions had improved over the past month, while 27 percent reported that conditions had deteriorated. The new orders index, at -0.5, remained close to last month’s level. After a sharp increase in April, the shipments index gave up much of the ground it had gained, falling to 4.6. The unfilled orders index held steady at -4.4. The delivery time index rose to zero, and the inventories index remained below zero, at -6.5.

Prices Continue to Escalate
The prices paid index rose sharply to a record-high 69.6, with 71 percent of respondents reporting price increases, up from 59 percent of respondents in April. In contrast, the prices received index fell 6 points to 15.2. Employment indexes were little changed from last month, with the indexes for the number of employees and the average workweek remaining near zero at 1.1.

Outlook Remains Subdued
Future indexes pointed to a guarded outlook for the next six months. The future general business conditions index, while somewhat above last month’s level, was low by historical standards, at 23.9. The future new orders and shipments indexes both crept downward to relatively low levels. The future prices paid index rose for a third consecutive month, to 64.1, while the future prices received index dipped to 30.4. The employment outlook was particularly weak: the future index for number of employees was relatively low, at 7.5, and the future average workweek index fell below zero for the first time in the survey’s history. The capital expenditures index remained near its April level, at 13.0, and the technology spending index slipped to 5.4, its lowest level in several years.

Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York

• Industrial Production Index: 111.2
• (Base year 2002, Seasonally Adjusted)
• Monthly Change: Down 0.7%
• Manufacturing Change: Down 0.8%
• Mining Change: Down 0.8%
• Utilities Change: Up 0.3%
• Capacity Utilization: 79.7%
• Long Run Average Capacity Utilization: 81%

Technorati Tags: industrial, production, capacity, utilization, manufacturing, mining, utilities

G17 Industrial Production - April 2008 [PDF]

Industrial Production G.17 - April 2008 [Text]

Source: Federal Reserve Board

• Foreign purchases of Long Term US Securities: $80.4 billion
• Official purchases: $48.1 billion
• Private purchases: $32.1 billion
• US residents purchase of foreign long term securities: $0.3 billion SOLD
• Monthly Net TIC flows: negative $48.2 billion

Technorati Tags: International Capital Flows, Treasury Department

Treasury International Capital (TIC) Data for March

Treasury International Capital (TIC) data for March 2008 are released today and posted on the U.S. Treasury website (www.treas.gov/tic). The next release, which will report on data for April, is scheduled for June 16, 2008.

Net foreign purchases of long-term securities were $80.4 billion.

* Net foreign purchases of long-term U.S. securities were $80.2 billion. Of this, net purchases by foreign official institutions were $48.1 billion, and net purchases by private foreign investors were $32.1 billion.

* U.S. residents sold a net $0.3 billion of long-term foreign securities.

Net foreign acquisition of long-term securities, taking into account adjustments, is estimated to have been $54.2 billion.

Foreign holdings of dollar-denominated short-term U.S. securities, including Treasury bills, and other custody liabilities increased $13.5 billion. Foreign holdings of Treasury bills increased $27.8 billion.

Banks’ own net dollar-denominated liabilities to foreign residents declined $115.9 billion.

Monthly net TIC flows were negative $48.2 billion. Of this, net foreign private flows were negative $57.6 billion, and net foreign official flows were $9.3 billion.

-30-
TIC Monthly Reports on Cross-Border Financial Flows
(Billions of dollars, not seasonally adjusted)
12 Months Through
2006 2007 Mar-07 Mar-08 Dec-07 Jan-08 Feb-08 Mar-08
Foreigners’ Acquisitions of Long-term Securities

1 Gross Purchases of Domestic U.S. Securities 21077.1 29729.8 22645.7 32265.1 2314.1 3137.9 2922.6 3075.4
2 Gross Sales of Domestic U.S. Securities 19933.9 28725.1 21478.8 31337.4 2244.7 3061.5 2844.7 2995.2
3 Domestic Securities Purchased, net (line 1 less line 2) /1 1143.2 1004.6 1166.9 927.7 69.4 76.4 77.9 80.2

4 Private, net /2 946.6 816.9 964.9 677.8 33.6 23.6 71.1 32.1
5 Treasury Bonds & Notes, net 125.9 198.2 175.9 183.5 -9.1 0.4 24.2 27.0
6 Gov’t Agency Bonds, net 193.8 107.0 156.0 144.5 -7.4 19.9 35.7 2.7
7 Corporate Bonds, net 482.2 331.3 508.3 202.3 29.1 -0.6 14.9 -8.7
8 Equities, net 144.6 180.4 124.8 147.5 21.0 3.8 -3.7 11.1

9 Official, net /3 196.6 187.7 202.0 249.9 35.8 52.8 6.7 48.1
10 Treasury Bonds & Notes, net 69.6 3.0 54.9 64.8 11.0 36.1 -3.6 28.0
11 Gov’t Agency Bonds, net 92.6 119.1 112.4 99.5 4.1 -0.6 1.2 15.5
12 Corporate Bonds, net 28.6 50.6 30.7 52.2 8.2 3.9 4.4 4.1
13 Equities, net 5.8 15.1 4.0 33.5 12.5 13.3 4.8 0.4

14 Gross Purchases of Foreign Securities from U.S. Residents 5515.9 8188.1 6031.9 8559.9 600.2 770.5 683.0 751.9
15 Gross Sales of Foreign Securities to U.S. Residents 5766.8 8411.3 6308.9 8741.1 612.6 790.1 696.0 751.6
16 Foreign Securities Purchased, net (line 14 less line 15) /4 -250.9 -223.2 -277.1 -181.2 -12.4 -19.7 -12.9 0.3

17 Foreign Bonds Purchased, net -144.5 -127.9 -169.4 -98.3 -12.4 -17.3 5.3 4.2
18 Foreign Equities Purchased, net -106.5 -95.3 -107.7 -82.9 0.0 -2.3 -18.3 -4.0

19 Net Long-Term Securities Transactions (line 3 plus line 16): 892.3 781.5 889.9 746.5 57.0 56.7 64.9 80.4

20 Other Acquisitions of Long-term Securities, net /5 -174.6 -234.2 -195.4 -236.2 -13.8 -17.9 -15.4 -26.3

21 Net Foreign Acquisition of Long-Term Securities
(lines 19 and 20): 717.7 547.2 694.5 510.2 43.2 38.8 49.6 54.2

22 Increase in Foreign Holdings of Dollar-denominated Short-term
U.S. Securities and Other Custody Liabilities: /6 146.2 226.1 197.1 257.7 43.9 76.3 -0.7 13.5
23 U.S. Treasury Bills -9.0 48.8 -0.6 76.1 15.1 11.6 14.6 27.8
24 Private, net 16.1 29.3 19.5 69.9 4.0 0.8 17.4 30.9
25 Official, net -25.0 19.5 -20.0 6.2 11.1 10.8 -2.8 -3.0
26 Other Negotiable Instruments
and Selected Other Liabilities: /7 155.1 177.3 197.6 181.6 28.8 64.8 -15.4 -14.3
27 Private, net 174.9 101.2 194.0 111.4 27.7 57.9 -9.8 -7.1
28 Official, net -19.8 76.1 3.7 70.2 1.0 6.9 -5.6 -7.2

29 Change in Banks’ Own Net Dollar-Denominated Liabilities 198.0 -108.6 -53.1 -281.9 -4.6 -80.3 0.1 -115.9

30 Monthly Net TIC Flows (lines 21,22,29) /8 1061.8 664.7 838.4 485.9 82.4 34.8 48.9 -48.2
of which
31 Private, net 923.0 377.8 645.0 206.8 31.6 -42.0 58.4 -57.6
32 Official, net 138.9 286.8 193.4 279.2 50.8 76.7 -9.5 9.3

/1 Net foreign purchases of U.S. securities (+)
/2 Includes international and regional organizations
/3 The reported division of net purchases of long-term securities between net purchases by foreign official institutions and net purchases
of other foreign investors is subject to a “transaction bias” described in Frequently Asked Questions 7 and 10.a.4 on the TIC website.
/4 Net transactions in foreign securities by U.S. residents. Foreign purchases of foreign securities = U.S. sales of foreign securities to foreigners.
Thus negative entries indicate net U.S. purchases of foreign securities, or an outflow of capital from the United States; positive entries
indicate net U.S. sales of foreign securities.
/5 Minus estimated unrecorded principal repayments to foreigners on domestic corporate and agency asset-backed securities +
estimated foreign acquisitions of U.S. equity through stock swaps -
estimated U.S. acquisitions of foreign equity through stock swaps +
increase in nonmarketable Treasury Bonds and Notes Issued to Official Institutions and Other Residents of Foreign Countries.
/6 These are primarily data on monthly changes in banks’ and broker/dealers’ custody liabilities. Data on custody claims are collected
quarterly and published in the Treasury Bulletin and the TIC website.
/7 “Selected Other Liabilities” are primarily the foreign liabilities of U.S. customers that are managed by U.S. banks or broker/dealers.
/8 TIC data cover most components of international financial flows, but do not include data on direct investment flows, which are collected
and published by the Department of Commerce’s Bureau of Economic Analysis. In addition to the monthly data summarized here, the
TIC collects quarterly data on some banking and nonbanking assets and liabilities. Frequently Asked Question 1 on the TIC website
describes the scope of TIC data collection.

Treasury International Capital - March2008 [PDF]

Source: Department of Treasury

Adjusted seasonally

• Market Composite Index: 674.4
• Change: Up 2.9%
• Purchase Index: 378.5
• Change: Down 0.7%
• Refinance Index: 2422.1
• Change: Up 6.5%
• 4-Week Moving Average: Down 2.7%
• 30-year Fixed Rate: 5.82% with 1.23 points

Technorati Tags: mortgages, mortgage, interest, rates, applications, housing market

Mortgage Applications Increase In Latest MBA Weekly Survey

WASHINGTON, D.C. (May 14, 2008) — The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) today released its Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending May 9, 2008. The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, was 674.4, an increase of 2.9 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from 655.4 one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index increased 2.9 percent compared with the previous week and was down 1.1 percent compared with the same week one year earlier.

The Refinance Index increased 6.5 percent to 2422.1 from 2273.8 the previous week and the seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 0.7 percent to 378.5 from 381.3 one week earlier. The Conventional Purchase Index decreased 0.8 percent while the Government Purchase Index (largely FHA) decreased 0.7 percent.

The four week moving average for the seasonally adjusted Market Index is down 2.7 percent to 633.6 from 650.8. The four week moving average is down 0.2 percent to 364.3 from 365.1 for the Purchase Index, while this average is down 4.8 percent to 2221.8 from 2332.8 for the Refinance Index.

The refinance share of mortgage activity increased to 48.7 percent of total applications from 47.1 percent the previous week. The adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) share of activity increased to 8.3 from 6.8 percent of total applications from the previous week.

The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages decreased to 5.82 percent from 5.91 percent, with points increasing to 1.23 from 1.12 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent loan-to-value (LTV) ratio loans.

The average contract interest rate for 15-year fixed-rate mortgages decreased to 5.38 percent from 5.49 percent, with points increasing to 1.09 from 1.07 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent LTV loans.

The average contract interest rate for one-year ARMs decreased to 6.6 percent from 6.77 percent, with points decreasing to 1.31 from 1.35 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent LTV loans.

Source: Mortgage Bankers Association

• CPI-U: 214.823
• Monthly Change: Up 0.6%
• Year-to-year Change: Up 3.9%
• Core CPI-U: Up 0.1% [Seasonally adjusted]
• CPI-W: 210.698
• Monthly Change: Up 0.7%
• Year-to-year Change: Up 4.2%
• Chained CPI-U: 123.845
• Monthly Change: Up 0.5%
• Year-to-Year Change: Up 3.5%

Important notes: Numbers are not seasonally adjusted unless noted; base year=100 for CPI-U and CPI-W is 1982-1984; base year for C-CPI-U is 1999.

Technorati Tags: Consumer, Price, Index, CPI, inflation

CONSUMER PRICE INDEX: APRIL 2008

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased
0.6 percent in April, before seasonal adjustment, the Bureau of Labor
Statistics of the U.S. Department of Labor reported today. The April
level of 214.823 (1982-84=100) was 3.9 percent higher than in April 2007.

The Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers
(CPI-W) increased 0.7 percent in April, prior to seasonal adjustment. The
April level of 210.698 (1982-84=100) was 4.2 percent higher than in April
2007.

The Chained Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (C-CPI-U)
increased 0.5 percent in April on a not seasonally adjusted basis. The
April level of 123.845 (December 1999=100) was 3.5 percent higher than in
April 2007. Please note that the indexes for the post-2006 period are
subject to revision.

CPI for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U)

On a seasonally adjusted basis, the CPI-U advanced 0.2 percent in
April, following a 0.3 percent increase in March. The index for energy
was virtually unchanged after advancing 1.9 percent in March. In April,
the index for petroleum-based energy fell 1.6 percent, offsetting a 2.5
percent increase in the index for energy services. The food index rose
0.9 percent in April. The index for food at home increased 1.5 percent,
reflecting substantial increases in all six major grocery store food
groups. The index for all items less food and energy advanced 0.1 percent
in April, following a 0.2 percent rise in March. Downturns in the indexes
for public transportation, for household furnishings and operations, and
for recreation, coupled with a larger decline in the index for lodging
away from home, more than offset an upturn in the index for apparel.

Table A. Percent changes in CPI for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U)

Seasonally adjusted

Expenditure Compound
Category Changes from preceding month annual Un-
rate adjusted
3-mos. 12-mos.
Oct. Nov. Dec. Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. ended ended
2007 2007 2007 2008 2008 2008 2008 Apr. 2008 Apr. 2008

All items………. .3 .9 .4 .4 .0 .3 .2 2.3 3.9
Food and beverages .2 .4 .1 .7 .4 .2 .9 6.1 5.0
Housing……….. .2 .4 .3 .2 .2 .4 .3 3.7 3.0
Apparel……….. .1 .6 .1 .4 -.3 -1.3 .5 -4.6 -.7
Transportation…. .3 3.5 1.0 .5 -.7 .7 -.7 -2.5 7.2
Medical care…… .5 .4 .3 .5 .1 .1 .2 1.6 4.3
Recreation…….. .3 .2 .0 .2 .1 .3 -.1 1.2 1.2
Education and
communication.. .3 .0 .3 .4 .1 .3 .4 3.3 3.2
Other goods and
services……. .2 .2 .3 .4 .2 .4 .5 4.8 3.5
Special indexes:
Energy………… 1.0 6.9 1.7 .7 -.5 1.9 .0 5.6 15.9
Food………….. .2 .4 .1 .7 .4 .2 .9 6.3 5.1
All items less
food and energy .2 .2 .2 .3 .0 .2 .1 1.2 2.3

During the first four months of 2008, the CPI-U rose at a 3.0 percent
seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR). This compares with an increase of
4.1 percent for all of 2007. The deceleration thus far this year reflects
smaller increases in the indexes for energy and for all items less food
and energy. The index for energy advanced at a 6.3 percent SAAR in the
first four months of 2008 compared with 17.4 percent in 2007. Petroleum-
based energy costs decreased at a 0.7 percent annual rate while charges
for energy services rose at a 17.7 percent annual rate. The food index
has increased at a 6.9 percent SAAR thus far this year, following a 4.9
percent rise for all of 2007. Excluding food and energy, the CPI-U
advanced at a 1.8 percent SAAR in the first four months, following a 2.4
percent rise for all of 2007.

The food and beverages index rose 0.9 percent in April. The index
for food at home increased 1.5 percent, following a 0.2 percent rise in
March. Each of the six major grocery store food groups contributed to the
larger advance in April. The index for fruits and vegetables, which rose
0.1 percent in March, increased 2.0 percent in April. The indexes for
fresh fruits and for processed fruits and vegetables increased 3.2 and 3.4
percent, respectively, while the index for fresh vegetables declined 0.2
percent. The index for cereal and bakery products, which increased 1.3
percent in March, rose 1.4 percent in April. Prices for bread increased
1.5 percent and were 14.1 percent higher than a year earlier. The index
for meats, poultry, fish, and eggs, which was virtually unchanged in
March, advanced 0.9 percent in April. A 1.1 percent decline in beef
prices was more than offset by increases in the indexes for pork, for fish
and seafood, and for poultry–up 3.4, 2.6, and 0.7 percent, respectively.
The index for dairy products turned up in April, increasing 1.2 percent.
Milk prices rose 0.9 percent and were 13.5 percent higher than in April
2007. The index for nonalcoholic beverages increased 1.7 percent,
reflecting large price increases for coffee and for carbonated drinks–up
4.0 and 2.2 percent, respectively. The index for other food at home rose
1.9 percent in April, reflecting large increases in most categories. In
particular, the indexes for butter and for margarine increased 7.8 and 6.5
percent, respectively. The other two components of the food and beverages
index–food away from home and alcoholic beverages–increased 0.3 and 0.6
percent, respectively.

The index for housing rose 0.3 percent in April. The index for
shelter increased 0.1 percent in April, the same as in March. Within
shelter, the indexes for rent and owners’ equivalent rent increased 0.3
and 0.2 percent, respectively. The index for lodging away from home
declined for the third consecutive month–down 1.9 percent in April. The
index for household energy registered its third consecutive large increase-
-up 2.6 percent in April. The index for fuel oil rose 4.4 percent and was
52.6 percent higher than in April 2007. The indexes for natural gas and
for electricity rose 4.8 and 1.5 percent, respectively. During the last
12 months charges for natural gas and for electricity increased 10.9 and
5.0 percent, respectively. The index for household furnishings and
operations, which increased 0.5 percent in March, declined 0.1 percent in
April.

The transportation index declined 0.7 percent in April, reflecting a
2.0 percent decrease in the index for gasoline. The index for new
vehicles declined 0.2 percent and was 1.3 percent lower than in April
2007. The index for used cars and trucks declined 0.3 percent in April,
but was 1.8 percent higher than a year ago. The index for public
transportation declined 0.4 percent in April, reflecting a 0.5 percent
decrease in the index for airline fares. (Prior to seasonal adjustment,
airline fares rose 0.9 percent and were 10.1 percent higher than a year
ago.)

___________________________________________________________________________
Gasoline prices rose 5.6 percent in April. Compared to a year ago, these
prices were up 20.9 percent. Gasoline prices increase seasonally during
the first five months of the year, with the largest increases occurring in
March and April and decline seasonally for the remainder of the year.
___________________________________________________________________________

The index for apparel rose 0.5 percent in April, following a 1.3
percent decrease in March. (Prior to seasonal adjustment, apparel prices
rose 1.0 percent. Prices for men’s and boys’ apparel rose 1.4 percent and
women’s and girls apparel increased 0.5 percent. During the last 12
months, prices for men’s and boys’ apparel increased 1.3 percent, while
prices for women’s and girls’ clothing fell 5.0 percent.)

Medical care costs rose 0.2 percent in April and are 4.3 percent
higher than a year ago. The index for medical care commodities–
prescription drugs, nonprescription drugs, and medical supplies–decreased
0.2 percent. The index for medical care services increased 0.3 percent.
Within the latter group, the indexes for professional services and for
hospital and related services increased 0.2 and 0.5 percent, respectively.

The index for recreation, which rose 0.3 percent in March, declined
0.1 percent in April. A 0.4 percent decrease in the index for video and
audio was largely responsible for the April decrease. Declines in the
indexes for photography, for toys, and for admissions to movies, theaters,
and concerts also contributed to the April decrease.

The index for education and communication increased 0.4 percent in
April. Educational costs rose 0.6 percent and the index for communication
costs rose 0.2 percent. Within the latter category, increases in charges
for telephone services more than offset a decline in the index for
information technology, hardware and services. Local land-line telephone
charges rose 0.8 and long distance land-line telephone charges and
wireless telephone services each rose 0.3 percent. The index for
information technology, hardware and services declined 0.7 percent,
reflecting decreases in the indexes for personal computers and peripheral
equipment and for internet services.

The index for other goods and services increased 0.5 percent in
April. The index for personal care products rose 0.6 percent, reflecting
a 1.2 percent increase in the index for hair, dental, shaving and
miscellaneous personal care products. The index for tobacco and smoking
products rose 0.3 percent.

CPI for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W)

On a seasonally adjusted basis, the CPI for Urban Wage Earners and
Clerical Workers increased 0.2 percent in April.

Table B. Percent changes in CPI for Urban Wage Earners and
Clerical Workers (CPI-W)

Seasonally adjusted

Expenditure Compound
Category Changes from preceding month annual Un-
rate adjusted
3-mos. 12-mos.
Oct. Nov. Dec. Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. ended ended
2007 2007 2007 2008 2008 2008 2008 Apr. 2008 Apr. 2008

All items………. .3 1.0 .4 .4 .0 .4 .2 2.4 4.2
Food and beverages .2 .3 .1 .7 .3 .2 .9 6.1 5.0
Housing……….. .3 .4 .2 .2 .2 .5 .4 4.6 3.2
Apparel……….. .1 .4 .2 .8 -.3 -1.2 .2 -5.4 -.5
Transportation…. .3 3.8 1.1 .7 -.7 .7 -.7 -2.8 7.9
Medical care…… .5 .4 .3 .6 .1 .1 .2 1.4 4.4
Recreation…….. .2 .1 .1 .2 .1 .3 -.2 1.2 1.0
Education and
communication.. .3 .0 .2 .3 .1 .2 .4 2.9 2.8
Other goods and
services……. .2 .2 .4 .5 .3 .4 .4 4.5 3.8
Special indexes:
Energy………… 1.1 7.2 1.8 .8 -.7 1.9 -.2 4.3 16.2
Food………….. .2 .3 .1 .7 .3 .2 1.0 6.3 5.1
All items less
food and energy .2 .2 .2 .3 .0 .1 .1 1.3 2.2

Consumer Price Index data for May are scheduled for release on Friday,
June 13, 2008, at 8:30 A.M. (EDT).

Facilities for Sensory Impaired

Information from this release will be made available to sensory
impaired individuals upon request. Voice phone: 202-691-5200, Federal
Relay Services: 1-800-877-8339.

Brief Explanation of the CPI

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is a measure of the average change in
prices over time of goods and services purchased by households. The
Bureau of Labor Statistics publishes CPIs for two population groups: (1)
the CPI for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W), which covers
households of wage earners and clerical workers that comprise
approximately 32 percent of the total population and (2) the CPI for All
Urban Consumers (CPI-U) and the Chained CPI for All Urban Consumers (C-CPI-
U), which cover approximately 87 percent of the total population and
include in addition to wage earners and clerical worker households, groups
such as professional, managerial, and technical workers, the self-
employed, short-term workers, the unemployed, and retirees and others not
in the labor force.

The CPIs are based on prices of food, clothing, shelter, and fuels,
transportation fares, charges for doctors’ and dentists’ services, drugs,
and other goods and services that people buy for day-to-day living.
Prices are collected in 87 urban areas across the country from about
50,000 housing units and approximately 23,000 retail establishments-
department stores, supermarkets, hospitals, filling stations, and other
types of stores and service establishments. All taxes directly associated
with the purchase and use of items are included in the index. Prices of
fuels and a few other items are obtained every month in all 87 locations.
Prices of most other commodities and services are collected every month in
the three largest geographic areas and every other month in other areas.
Prices of most goods and services are obtained by personal visits or
telephone calls of the Bureau’s trained representatives.

In calculating the index, price changes for the various items in each
location are averaged together with weights, which represent their
importance in the spending of the appropriate population group. Local
data are then combined to obtain a U.S. city average. For the CPI-U and
CPI-W separate indexes are also published by size of city, by region of
the country, for cross-classifications of regions and population-size
classes, and for 27 local areas. Area indexes do not measure differences
in the level of prices among cities; they only measure the average change
in prices for each area since the base period. For the C-CPI-U data are
issued only at the national level. It is important to note that the CPI-U
and CPI-W are considered final when released, but the C-CPI-U is issued in
preliminary form and subject to two annual revisions.

The index measures price change from a designed reference date. For
the CPI-U and the CPI-W the reference base is 1982-84 equals 100.0. The
reference base for the C-CPI-U is December 1999 equals 100.
An increase of 16.5 percent from the reference base, for example, is shown
as 116.5. This change can also be expressed in dollars as follows: the
price of a base period market basket of goods and services in the CPI has
risen from $10 in 1982-84 to $11.65.

For further details visit the CPI home page on the Internet at
http://www.bls.gov/cpi/ or contact our CPI Information and Analysis
Section on (202) 691-7000.

Note on Sampling Error in the Consumer Price Index

The CPI is a statistical estimate that is subject to sampling error
because it is based upon a sample of retail prices and not the complete
universe of all prices. BLS calculates and publishes estimates of the 1-
month, 2-month, 6-month and 12-month percent change standard errors
annually, for the CPI-U. These standard error estimates can be used to
construct confidence intervals for hypothesis testing. For example, the
estimated standard error of the 1 month percent change is 0.06 percent for
the U.S. All Items Consumer Price Index. This means that if we repeatedly
sample from the universe of all retail prices using the same methodology,
and estimate a percentage change for each sample, then 95% of these
estimates would be within 0.12 percent of the 1 month percentage change
based on all retail prices. For a 1-month change of 0.2 percent in the
All Items CPI for All Urban Consumers, we are 95 percent confident that
the actual percent change based on all retail prices would fall between
0.08 and 0.32 percent. For the latest data, including information on how
to use the estimates of standard error, see “Variance Estimates for
Changes in the Consumer Price Index, January 2005- December 2005″ in the
CPI Detailed Report, February 2006. These data are available on the CPI
home page (http://www.bls.gov/cpi), using the following link
http://www.bls.gov/cpi/cpivar2006.pdf

Calculating Index Changes

Movements of the indexes from one month to another are usually
expressed as percent changes rather than changes in index points, because
index point changes are affected by the level of the index in relation to
its
base period while percent changes are not. The example below illustrates
the computation of index point and percent changes.

Percent changes for 3-month and 6-month periods are expressed as
annual rates and are computed according to the standard formula for
compound growth rates. These data indicate what the percent change would
be if the current rate were maintained for a 12-month period.

Index Point Change

CPI
202.416
Less previous index
201.800
Equals index point change
.616

Percent Change

Index point difference
.616
Divided by the previous index
201.800
Equals
0.003
Results multiplied by one hundred
0.003×100
Equals percent change
0.3

Consumer Price Index (CPI) - April 2008 [PDF]

Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics

Import Export Prices At a Glance

• Import Prices: Up 1.8%
• Non-petroleum Import Prices: Up 1.1%
• Export Prices: Up 0.3%
• Non-agricultural Export Prices: Up 0.6%
• Agricultural Export Prices: Down 2.2%
• Yearly Import Price Change: Up 15.4%
• Yearly Export Price Change: Up 7.7%

Technorati Tags: export, import, price, index, inflation, international trade

U.S. IMPORT AND EXPORT PRICE INDEXES
- APRIL 2008 -

The U.S. Import Price Index increased 1.8 percent in April, the Bureau of Labor Statistics of the
U.S. Department of Labor reported today. For the second consecutive month, higher prices for both
pe