EconoIndicators

Investor Confidence At a Glance
Note: There were large revisions to the June index.

• Global Index: 70.7
• Monthly Change: Down 2.4
• Year-to-year Change: Down 18.7
• North America Index: 76.1
• Monthly Change: Up 0.9
• Europe Index: 81.8
• Monthly Change: Up 5.4
• Asia Index: 88.3
• Monthly Change: Down 2.5

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State Street Investor Confidence Chart 1

Investor Confidence Index Declines from 73.1 to 70.7 in September

State Street Investor Confidence Chart 2

Boston, September 23, 2008 – State Street Global Markets, the investment research and trading arm of State Street Corporation (NYSE:STT), today released the results of the State Street Investor Confidence Index® for September 2008.
Global Investor Confidence decreased by 2.4 points to 70.7 from a revised August level of 73.1. Confidence among North American investors remained subdued at a level of 76.1, up just 0.9 from August’s revised level. Asian investors, too, felt pessimistic and their confidence fell 2.5 points from a revised level of 88.3 to 85.8. By contrast, European investors were somewhat more optimistic, and their confidence rose 5.4 points to 81.8 from a revised August level of 76.4
Developed through State Street Global Markets’ research partnership, State Street Associates, by Harvard University professor Ken Froot and State Street Associates Director Paul O’Connell, the State Street Investor Confidence Indexmeasures investor confidence on a quantitative basis by analyzing the actual buying and selling patterns of institutional investors. The index is based on financial theory that assigns precise meaning to changes in investor risk appetite, or the willingness of investors to allocate their portfolios to equities. The more of their portfolio that institutional investors are willing to devote to equities, the greater their risk appetite or confidence.
“This month’s reading of Global Investor Confidence is the third lowest we have recorded since the inception of the Index over ten years ago,” commented Froot. “This is perhaps unsurprising, given the market turmoil that we have experienced. In examining the underlying data, we have discovered that, alongside the diminution in risk appetite, there is a pronounced increase in the heterogeneity of investor positions. In deleveraging, institutional investors have sought to exit some of the more `crowded’ trades in the marketplace.”
“Despite registering a small increase, the confidence of North American investors remains in the lower 10 th percentile that we have observed over the four years that the index has been calculated” added O’Connell. “Only in Europe did we observe increased appetite for risk-taking, albeit off very low levels. These readings were calculated before the latest plans to address the balance sheet concerns with major US financial intermediaries were mooted. It remains to be seen whether these plans will lead to an improvement in confidence over the comings days and weeks.”

Source: State Street Associates