Gross Domestic Product (GDP) At a Glance
4th Quarter Advance Estimate
- Real Annual Growth Rate: 1.9%
- Previous Quarter Rate: 0.9%
- Current Dollar GDP Growth: 3.0%
- GDP Implicit Price Deflator: 1.1%
- Gross Domestic Purchases Deflator: 4.3%
Technorati Tags: Gross Domestic Product, GDP, GNP
GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT: Second Quarter 2008 (Advance)
REVISED ESTIMATES: 2005 THROUGH FIRST QUARTER 2008
Real gross domestic product — the output of goods and services produced by labor and property
located in the United States — increased at an annual rate of 1.9 percent in the second quarter of 2008
(that is, from the first quarter to the second quarter), according to advance estimates released by the
Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the first quarter, real GDP increased 0.9 percent.
The Bureau emphasized that the second-quarter “advance” estimates are based on source data that
are incomplete or subject to further revision by the source agency (see the box on page 3). The second-
quarter “preliminary” estimates, based on more comprehensive data, will be released on August 28, 2008.
BOX –
The estimates released today reflect the regular annual revision to the national income and product
accounts (NIPAs), beginning with the estimates for the first quarter of 2005. Annual revisions, which
are usually released in July, incorporate source data that are more complete, more detailed, and
otherwise more reliable than those previously available. This release includes the revised quarterly
estimates of GDP, corporate profits, and personal income and provides an overview of the effects of the
revision.
The August 2008 Survey of Current Business will contain NIPA tables and an article describing
the revisions. The revised estimates will be available on BEA’s Web site at www.bea.gov.
FOOTNOTE.–Quarterly estimates are expressed at seasonally adjusted annual rates, unless otherwise
specified. Quarter-to-quarter dollar changes are differences between these published estimates. Percent
changes are calculated from unrounded data and are annualized. “Real” estimates are in chained (2000)
dollars. Price indexes are chain-type measures.
This news release is available on BEA’s Web site along with the Technical Note and Highlights
related to this release.
The increase in real GDP in the second quarter primarily reflected positive contributions from
exports, personal consumption expenditures (PCE), nonresidential structures, federal government
spending, and state and local government spending that were partly offset by negative contributions
from private inventory investment, residential fixed investment, and equipment and software. Imports,
which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, decreased.
The acceleration in real GDP growth in the second quarter primarily reflected a larger decrease in
imports, an acceleration in exports, a smaller decrease in residential fixed investment, and an
acceleration in PCE that were partly offset by a larger decrease in inventory investment.
Final sales of computers contributed 0.12 percentage point to the second-quarter growth in real
GDP after contributing 0.05 percentage point to the first-quarter growth. Motor vehicle output
subtracted 1.07 percentage points from the second-quarter growth in real GDP after subtracting 0.41
percentage point from the first-quarter growth.
The price index for gross domestic purchases, which measures prices paid by U.S. residents,
increased 4.2 percent in the second quarter, compared with an increase of 3.5 percent in the first.
Excluding food and energy prices, the price index for gross domestic purchases increased 2.2 percent in
the second quarter, the same as in the first.
Real personal consumption expenditures increased 1.5 percent in the second quarter, compared
with an increase of 0.9 percent in the first. Durable goods decreased 3.0 percent, compared with a
decrease of 4.3 percent. Nondurable goods increased 4.0 percent, in contrast to a decrease of 0.4
percent. Services increased 1.1 percent, compared with an increase of 2.4 percent.
Real nonresidential fixed investment increased 2.3 percent in the second quarter, compared with
an increase of 2.4 percent in the first. Nonresidential structures increased 14.4 percent, compared with
an increase of 8.6 percent. Equipment and software decreased 3.4 percent, compared with a decrease of
0.6 percent. Real residential fixed investment decreased 15.6 percent, compared with a decrease of 25.1
percent.
Real exports of goods and services increased 9.2 percent in the second quarter, compared with an
increase of 5.1 percent in the first. Real imports of goods and services decreased 6.6 percent, compared
with a decrease of 0.8 percent.
Real federal government consumption expenditures and gross investment increased 6.7 percent in
the second quarter, compared with an increase of 5.8 percent in the first. National defense increased 7.3
percent, the same as in the first. Nondefense increased 5.3 percent, compared with an increase of 2.9
percent. Real state and local government consumption expenditures and gross investment increased 1.6
percent, in contrast to a decrease of 0.3 percent.
The real change in private inventories subtracted 1.92 percentage points from the second-quarter
change in real GDP after subtracting 0.02 percentage point from the first-quarter change. Private
businesses decreased inventories $62.2 billion in the second quarter, following decreases of $10.2 billion
in the first and $8.1 billion in the fourth.
Real final sales of domestic product — GDP less change in private inventories — increased 3.9
percent in the second quarter, compared with an increase of 0.9 percent in the first.
Gross domestic purchases
Real gross domestic purchases — purchases by U.S. residents of goods and services wherever
produced — decreased 0.5 percent in the second quarter, in contrast to an increase of 0.1 percent in the
first.
Disposition of personal income
Current-dollar personal income increased $214.5 billion (7.4 percent) in the second quarter,
compared with an increase of $109.1 billion (3.7 percent) in the first. The acceleration primarily
reflected an acceleration in personal current transfer receipts due to the effects of the rebates to
individuals who pay no income taxes (or for whom the rebate exceeded the amount of taxes they pay)
from the Economic Stimulus Act of 2008.
Personal current taxes decreased $178.9 billion in the second quarter, in contrast to an increase of
$20.7 billion in the first. The sharp downturn reflected the rebates to individuals with tax liabilities,
which are treated as an offset to taxes.
Disposable personal income increased $393.4 billion (15.9 percent) in the second quarter,
compared with an increase of $88.5 billion (3.5 percent) in the first. Real disposable personal income
increased 11.3 percent, in contrast to a decrease of 0.1 percent.
Personal outlays increased $143.6 billion (5.6 percent) in the second quarter, compared with an
increase of $95.7 billion (3.8 percent) in the first. Personal saving — disposable personal income less
personal outlays — was $284.9 billion in the second quarter, compared with $35.1 billion in the first.
The personal saving rate — saving as a percentage of disposable personal income — was 2.6 percent in
the second quarter, compared with 0.3 percent in the first. Saving from current income may be near zero
or negative when outlays are financed by borrowing (including borrowing financed through credit cards
or home equity loans), by selling investments or other assets, or by using savings from previous periods.
For more information, see the FAQs on “Personal Saving” on BEA’s Web site. For a comparison of personal
saving in BEA’s national income and product accounts with personal saving in the Federal Reserve Board’s
flow of funds accounts and data on changes in net worth (which helps finance negative saving), go to
http://www.bea.gov/bea/dn/nipaweb/Nipa-Frb.asp.
Current-dollar GDP
Current-dollar GDP — the market value of the nation’s output of goods and services — increased
3.0 percent, or $105.7 billion, in the second quarter to a level of $14,256.5 billion. In the first quarter,
current-dollar GDP increased 3.5 percent, or $119.6 billion.
BOX –
Information on the assumptions used for unavailable source data is provided in a technical note
that is posted with the news release on BEA’s Web site. Within a few days after the release, a detailed
“Key Source Data and Assumptions” file is posted on the Web site. In the middle of each month, an
analysis of the current quarterly estimates of GDP and related series is made available on the Web site;
click on Survey of Current Business, “GDP and the Economy.”
Gross Domestic Product (GDP) – 2nd Quarter 2008 Advance
Gross Domestic Product (GDP) – 2nd Quarter 2008 Advance
Gross Domestic Product Tables – 2nd Quarter 2008 Advance [Excel]
Source: Commerce Department, Bureau of Economic Analysis
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