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ADP Employment Report At a Glance

Total Nonfarm Private Employment: 116,026,000
Monthly Change: Up 9,000
Products Producing Sector: 21,683,000
Monthly Change: Down 65,000
Service Producing Sector: 94,343,000
Monthly Change: Up 74,000

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Wednesday, July 30, 2008, 8:15 A.M. ET
Nonfarm private employment increased 9,000 from June to July 2008 on a seasonally adjusted
basis, according to the ADP National Employment Report®. The estimated change in
employment from May to June was revised up from a decrease of 79,000 to a decrease of 77,000.
Though July’s figures showed a slight employment gain, the ADP Report’s recent three-month
average of negative 14,000 suggests that the weakened employment situation continues.
This month’s employment gain was driven by growth in the service-providing sector which
advanced 74,000. July employment in the goods-producing sector declined 65,000, while
manufacturing employment declined 49,000, marking their twentieth and twenty-third
consecutive monthly declines, respectively.
Large businesses, defined as those with 500 or more workers, saw employment decline 32,000,
while medium-size companies with between 50 and 499 workers declined by 9,000.
Employment among small-size businesses, defined as those with fewer than 50 workers,
advanced 50,000 during the month.
Two sectors of the economy hit hardest by recent problems in mortgage markets have been
residential construction and financial activities related to home sales and mortgage lending.
Today’s report suggests some lessening of the recent strain on employment in these industries. In
July, construction employment dropped 16,000. Though this was the twentieth consecutive
monthly decline, and brings the total decline in construction jobs since the peak in August of
2006 to 350,000, it was one of the smallest declines in recent months. In addition, employment in
financial activities rose 4,000 during the month.
For information on the construction and use of the ADP Report, please visit the methodology
section of the ADP National Employment Report website at
http://ADPemploymentreport.com/methodology.aspx.
Notice:
Due to the Labor Day holiday, the release date for the upcoming August ADP National Employment Report will
be Thursday, September 4, 2008. For the complete 2008 release schedule, please visit
http://www.adpemploymentreport.com/PDF/Final_release_Schedule.pdf.
DERIVED FROM ADP PAYROLL DATA
Table 1. Employees on nonfarm private payrolls by selected industry sector and size
(In thousands)
Seasonally Adjusted
Change
Apr. Jul.
Feb. Mar. May. Jun. from:
Industry / Size of Payroll
2008 2008 2008 2008 2008 2008p Jun. 2008 -
Jul. 2008p
116,056 116,069 116,094 116,017 116,026 9
Total nonfarm private……………116,053
Small (1-49)……………. 51,103 51,156 51,199 51,249 51,256 51,306 50
Medium (50-499)………. 45,603 45,606 45,591 45,585 45,552 45,543 -9
Large (> 499)………….. 19,347 19,294 19,279 19,260 19,209 19,177 -32
21,993 21,915 21,864 21,825 21,748 21,683 -65
Goods-producing…………..
Small (1-49)……………. 7,999 7,990 7,978 7,975 7,949 7,943 -6
Medium (50-499)………. 9,688 9,663 9,635 9,613 9,586 9,557 -29
Large (> 499)………….. 4,306 4,262 4,251 4,237 4,213 4,183 -30
Service-providing…………… 94,060 94,141 94,205 94,269 94,269 94,343 74
Small (1-49)……………. 43,104 43,166 43,221 43,274 43,307 43,363 56
Medium (50-499)………. 35,915 35,943 35,956 35,972 35,966 35,986 20
Large (> 499)………….. 15,041 15,032 15,028 15,023 14,996 14,994 -2
Addendum:
Manufacturing……………… 13,748 13,690 13,663 13,636 13,591 13,542 -49
p = preliminary
The matched sample used to develop the ADP National Employment Report was derived from
ADP data which, during the first six months of 2008, averaged approximately 399,000 payrolls
representing nearly 24 million U.S. employees. This approximately represents the size of the
matched sample used this month.
For information on the construction and use of the ADP Report, please visit the methodology
section of the ADP National Employment Report website at
http://ADPemploymentreport.com/methodology.aspx
Monthly Percent Change, Seasonally Adjusted Monthly Percent Change, Seasonally Adjusted
Jan-01
Apr-01
Jul-01
Oct-01
Jan-02
Apr-02
Jul-02
Oct-02
Jan-03
Apr-03
Jul-03
Oct-03
Jan-04
Apr-04
Jul-04
Oct-04
Jan-05
Apr-05
Jul-05
Oct-05
Jan-06
Apr-06
Jul-06
Oct-06
Jan-07
Chart 1. Growth of Nonfarm Private Employment, All Industries
RecessionADP National Employment Report BLS Current Estimate
0.6
Simple Correlation = 0.86
0.4
0.2
0.0
-0.2
-0.4
-0.6
-0.8
-1.0
Apr-07
Jul-07
Oct-07
Jan-08
Apr-08
Jul-08
Source: Automatic Data Processing, Inc., Macroeconomic Advisers, LLC., Bureau of Labor Statistics
Chart 2. Growth of Nonfarm Private Employment, Goods-Producing Industries
Recession
ADP National Employment Report
BLS Current Estimate
0.6
Simple Correlation = 0.85
0.4
0.2
0.0
-0.2
-0.4
-0.6
-0.8
-1.0
Source: Automatic Data Processing, Inc., Macroeconomic Advisers, LLC., Bureau of Labor Statistics
Monthly Percent Change, Seasonally Adjusted
Apr-01
Source: Automatic Data Processing, Inc., Macroeconomic Advisers, LLC., Bureau of Labor Statistics
Monthly Percent Change, Seasonally Adjusted
Apr-01
Jul-01
Oct-01 Oct-01
Apr-02 Apr-02
Jul-02
Oct-02 Oct-02
Jan-03
Apr-03 Apr-03
Jul-03
Oct-03 Oct-03
Jan-04
Apr-04 Apr-04
Jul-04
Oct-04 Oct-04
Jan-05
Apr-05 Apr-05
Jul-05
Oct-05 Oct-05
Jan-06
Apr-06 Apr-06
Jul-06
Oct-06 Oct-06
Jan-07
Apr-07 Apr-07
Jul-07
Chart 3. Growth of Nonfarm Private Employment, Service-Providing Industries
Recession ADP National Employment Report BLS Current Estimate
0.6
Simple Correlation = 0.78
0.4
0.2
0.0
-0.2
-0.4
-0.6
-0.8
-1.0
Jan-01
Jul-01
Jan-02
Jan-03
Jan-04
Jan-05
Jan-06
Jan-07
Oct-07
Jan-08
Apr-08
Jul-08
Chart 4. Growth of Nonfarm Private Employment, by Size of Payroll
Recession Small Medium Large
0.6
0.4
0.2
0.0
-0.2
-0.4
-0.6
-0.8
-1.0
Jan-01
Jan-02
Jul-02
Jul-03
Jul-04
Jul-05
Jul-06
Jul-07
Oct-07
Jan-08
Apr-08
Jul-08
Source: Automatic Data Processing, Inc., Macroeconomic Advisers, LLC.
Thousands
Chart 5. Monthly Changes of Employment in Construction and Financial Activities
50
40
30
20
Financial
Activities
10
0
-10
-20
-30
Construction
-40
Jan.03 Jul.03 Jan.04 Jul.04 Jan.05 Jul.05 Jan.06 Jul.06 Jan.07 Jul.07 Jan.08 Jul.08
Source: Automatic Data Processing, Inc., Macroeconomic Advisers, LLC