EconoIndicators

Conference Board Leading, Coincident and Lagging Indicators At a Glance:

• Leading Index: Down 0.6%
• Coincident Index: Up 0.1%
• Lagging Index: Up 0.3%
• Improved Leading Indicators: 1
• Unchanged Leading Indicators:1
• Worsened Leading Indicators: 8
• Improved Coincident Indicators: 3
• Unchanged Coincident Indicators: 1
• Worsened Coincident Indicators: 0

Technorati Tags: Conference Board, Leading Index, Leading Indicators

The Conference Board announced today that the U.S. leading index decreased 0.6 percent, the coincident index increased 0.1 percent and the lagging index increased 0.3 percent in August.

* The leading index fell sharply in August, and real money supply (M2) was the only large positive contributor in this month. However, the level of the leading index in June and July was revised up slightly as actual data for manufacturers’ new orders became available. The leading index increased 0.5 percent from February to August (a 1.0 percent annual rate), and the six-month diffusion index suggests that the strengths among the components became slightly more widespread in July and August.
* The coincident index increased again in August and it continues to rise on a somewhat slower, but steady, trend. It grew 0.9 percent from February to August (a 1.8 percent annual rate), down from the 2.5 percent average annual rate in 2006. Industrial production and employment have been making the largest positive contributions to the coincident index in recent months, but employment fell slightly in August. Despite slower growth, the strengths among the coincident indicators continued to be very widespread in recent months.
* The leading index has been alternating between monthly increases and decreases in 2007, and, as a result, it is essentially at the same level as in January 2007. In August, the largest negative contributions to the leading index were due to consumer expectations, initial claims for unemployment insurance (inverted), and stock prices. Housing permits and interest rate spread continued to make negative contributions through August. At the same time, real GDP grew at a 2.3 percent average annual rate in the first half of the year (including a 0.6 percent rate in the first quarter and a 4.0 percent rate in the second quarter). The current behavior of the leading index suggests that economic growth is likely to continue in the near term, albeit at a slow pace….Complete release with some data tables [PDF in popup window]

Source: Conference Board Press Release