CPI At a Glance
- CPI-U: 208.299
- Monthly Change: 0
- Year-to-year Change: Up2.4%
- Core CPI-U: Up 0.2% [Seasonally adjusted]
- CPI-W: 203.700
- Monthly Change: Down 0.1%
- Year-to-year Change: Up 2.3%
- Chained CPI-U: 120.148
- Monthly Change: Down 0.1%
- Year-to-Year Change: Up 2.1%
Important notes: Numbers are not seasonally adjusted unless noted; base year=100 for CPI-U and CPI-W is 1982-1984; base year for C-CPI-U is 1999.
Technorati Tags: Consumer Price Index, CPI, inflation
CONSUMER PRICE INDEX: JULY 2007
The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) was
virtually unchanged in July, before seasonal adjustment, the Bureau of
Labor Statistics of the U.S. Department of Labor reported today. The July
level of 208.299 (1982-84=100) was 2.4 percent higher than in July 2006.
The Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers
(CPI-W) decreased 0.1 percent in July prior to seasonal adjustment. The
July level of 203.700 (1982-84=100) was 2.3 percent higher than in July
2006.
The Chained Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (C-CPI-U)
decreased 0.1 percent in July on a not seasonally adjusted basis. The
July level of 120.148 (December 1999=100) was 2.1 percent higher than in
July 2006. Please note that the indexes for the post-2005 period are
subject to revision.
CPI for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U)
On a seasonally adjusted basis, the CPI-U advanced 0.1 percent in
July, following a 0.2 percent increase in June. The index for energy
declined for the second consecutive month, down 1.0 percent in July. The
index for petroleum-based energy decreased 1.4 percent. The index for
energy services fell 0.5 percent, resulting from a 1.7 percent decline in
the index for natural gas. The food index rose 0.3 percent in July,
reflecting a 0.5 percent increase in food away from home. The index for
food at home rose 0.1 percent in July after registering average monthly
increases of 0.6 percent in the first six months of the year. The index
for all items less food and energy advanced 0.2 percent in July, the same
as in June. A smaller increase in the index for shelter was offset by an
advance in the apparel index and larger increases in the indexes for
medical care and for new and used vehicles.
Table A. Percent changes in CPI for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U)
Seasonally adjusted Un-
Compound adjusted
Expenditure Changes from preceding month annual rate 12-mos.
Category 2007 3-mos. ended ended
Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May June July July ‘07 July ‘07
All Items .2 .4 .6 .4 .7 .2 .1 4.0 2.4
Food and beverages .7 .8 .3 .4 .3 .5 .3 4.3 4.1
Housing .2 .4 .2 .2 .2 .3 .2 2.7 3.2
Apparel .3 .5 -1.0 -.3 -.3 -.6 .4 -1.9 -.3
Transportation -.8 .1 2.8 1.2 2.8 -.2 -.3 9.4 -.7
Medical care .8 .5 .1 .4 .3 .2 .6 4.8 4.3
Recreation .1 .0 .0 .1 .2 .0 -.1 .5 .0
Education and
communication -.1 .3 .5 .3 .6 .0 .2 3.4 2.3
Other goods and
services .8 .2 .2 .3 .3 .3 .0 2.5 3.8
Special Indexes
Energy -1.5 .9 5.9 2.4 5.4 -.5 -1.0 16.0 1.0
Food .7 .8 .3 .4 .3 .5 .3 4.4 4.2
All Items less
food and energy .3 .2 .1 .2 .1 .2 .2 2.5 2.2
During the first seven months of 2007, the CPI-U rose at a 4.5
percent seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR). This compares with an
increase of 2.5 percent for all of 2006. The index for energy, which rose
2.9 percent in 2006, advanced at a 21.3 percent SAAR in the first seven
months of 2007 despite registering declines in each of the last two
months. Petroleum-based energy costs increased at a 36.9 percent annual
rate and charges for energy services rose at a 3.8 percent annual rate.
The food index has increased at a 5.7 percent SAAR thus far this year,
following a 2.1 percent rise for all of 2006. Excluding food and energy,
the CPI-U advanced at a 2.3 percent SAAR in the first seven months,
following a 2.6 percent rise for all of 2006.
The food and beverages index rose 0.3 percent in July. The index
for food at home, which increased 0.6 percent in June, rose 0.1 percent in
July. Another sharp increase in the index for dairy products was nearly
offset by declines in the indexes for fruits and vegetables, for meats,
poultry, fish, and eggs, and for nonalcoholic beverages. The index for
dairy products increased 2.7 percent, following a 3.2 percent increase in
June. Milk prices rose 6.4 percent and have risen 16.9 percent since the
beginning of the year. The index for fruits and vegetables declined for
the third consecutive month–down 1.1 percent in July. The indexes for
fresh fruits and for fresh vegetables declined 2.3 and 0.5 percent,
respectively, while the index for processed fruits and vegetables rose 0.2
percent. The index for meats, poultry, fish, and eggs decreased 0.4
percent. The indexes for pork and for beef declined 0.9 and 0.7 percent,
respectively, while poultry prices rose 0.3 percent. The index for
nonalcoholic beverages fell 0.1 percent. The indexes for cereal and
bakery products and for other food at home increased 0.1 and 0.3 percent,
respectively. The other two components of the food and beverages index–
food away from home and alcoholic beverages–increased 0.5 and 0.1
percent, respectively.
The index for housing increased 0.2 percent in July, following a 0.3
percent rise in June. The index for shelter rose 0.2 percent, following
an increase of 0.4 percent in June. Within shelter, the index for rent
rose 0.3 percent; the index for owners’ equivalent rent, 0.2 percent; and
the index for lodging away from home, 0.8 percent. The index for
household energy decreased 0.2 percent as a 1.7 percent decline in the
index for natural gas more than offset an increase of 4.2 percent in the
index for fuel oil. The index for electricity was virtually unchanged.
The index for household furnishings and operations decreased 0.2 percent
in July.
The transportation index declined for the second consecutive month–
down 0.3 percent in July– reflecting another decline in the index for
motor fuels. The index for gasoline, which fell 1.1 percent in June,
declined 1.7 percent in July. (Prior to seasonal adjustment, gasoline
prices were 4.9 percent lower than their peak level recorded in May.) The
index for new vehicles was virtually unchanged. (Prior to seasonal
adjustment, new vehicle prices declined for the sixth consecutive month,
down 0.3 percent in July.) The index for used cars and trucks increased
0.7 percent. During the last 12 months, new vehicle prices have declined
1.1 percent and prices for used cars and trucks, 4.3 percent. The index
for public transportation decreased 0.1 percent in July. The index for
airline fares was virtually unchanged in July. (Prior to seasonal
adjustment, airline fares advanced 1.1 percent.)
The index for apparel, which had declined in each of the preceding
four months, increased 0.4 percent in July. (Prior to seasonal
adjustment, apparel prices declined 3.2 percent, reflecting continued
seasonal discounting of spring-summer clothing. Prices for women’s and
girls’ apparel registered the largest decline–down 6.1 percent.)
Medical care costs rose 0.6 percent in July. The index for medical
care commodities–prescription drugs, nonprescription drugs, and medical
supplies–increased 0.6 percent. The index for medical care services also
rose 0.6 percent. The indexes for professional services and for hospital
and related services increased 0.4 and 0.9 percent, respectively.
The index for recreation declined 0.1 percent in July. Decreases in
the indexes for video and audio and for toys–down 0.5 and 1.4 percent,
respectively–more than offset increases in most other recreation
categories.
The index for education and communication increased 0.2 percent in
July. Educational costs rose 0.5 percent while the index for
communication was virtually unchanged. Within the former group, the
indexes for college textbooks and for college tuition and fees rose 0.7
and 0.5 percent, respectively. Within the communication group, the index
for telephone services rose 0.1 percent as a 0.6 percent increase in land-
line local charges more than offset a 0.2 percent decline in land-line
long distance charges. The indexes for personal computers and peripheral
equipment and for internet services and electronic information providers
declined 1.0 and 0.2 percent, respectively.
The index for other goods and services was virtually unchanged in
July. The index for tobacco and smoking products rose 0.3 percent and has
increased 6.2 percent during the last 12 months. The index for
miscellaneous personal services fell 0.2 percent, reflecting a 1.6 percent
decrease in the index for financial services.
CPI for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W)
On a seasonally adjusted basis, the CPI for Urban Wage Earners and
Clerical Workers increased 0.1 percent in July.
Table B. Percent changes in CPI for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical
Workers (CPI-W)
Seasonally adjusted Un-
Compound adjusted
Expenditure Changes from preceding month annual rate 12-mos.
Category 2007 3-mos. ended ended
Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May June July July ‘07 July ‘07
All Items .1 .4 .8 .5 .8 .1 .1 4.2 2.3
Food and beverages .7 .8 .3 .4 .4 .5 .2 4.5 4.2
Housing .3 .4 .3 .2 .2 .2 .2 2.2 3.2
Apparel -.1 .5 -.8 -.4 -.3 -.9 .8 -1.6 .0
Transportation -1.0 .0 3.0 1.4 3.1 -.2 -.3 10.9 -.7
Medical care .8 .5 .1 .4 .3 .2 .7 4.7 4.4
Recreation .1 .0 -.1 .0 .2 -.1 -.1 -.1 -.3
Education and
communication -.1 .3 .4 .3 .6 .0 .3 3.3 2.2
Other goods and
services 1.0 .4 .2 .1 .3 .3 .1 3.0 4.1
Special Indexes
Energy -1.5 .8 6.2 2.6 5.8 -.7 -1.0 17.2 1.0
Food .6 .8 .3 .4 .4 .5 .3 4.6 4.3
All Items less
food and energy .2 .2 .1 .2 .1 .2 .3 2.3 2.1
Consumer Price Index data for August are scheduled for release on
Wednesday, September 19, 2007, at 8:30 A.M. (EDT).
__________________________________________________________________________________________________
Facilities for Sensory Impaired
Information from this release will be made available to sensory
impaired individuals upon request. Voice phone: 202-691-5200, Federal
Relay Services: 1-800-877-8339. For a recorded message of Summary CPI
data, call (202) 691-5200.
__________________________________________________________________________________________________
Brief Explanation of the CPI
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is a measure of the average change in
prices over time of goods and services purchased by households. The
Bureau of Labor Statistics publishes CPIs for two population groups: (1)
the CPI for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W), which covers
households of wage earners and clerical workers that comprise
approximately 32 percent of the total population and (2) the CPI for All
Urban Consumers (CPI-U) and the Chained CPI for All Urban Consumers (C-CPI-
U), which cover approximately 87 percent of the total population and
include in addition to wage earners and clerical worker households, groups
such as professional, managerial, and technical workers, the self-
employed, short-term workers, the unemployed, and retirees and others not
in the labor force.
The CPIs are based on prices of food, clothing, shelter, and fuels,
transportation fares, charges for doctors’ and dentists’ services, drugs,
and other goods and services that people buy for day-to-day living.
Prices are collected in 87 urban areas across the country from about
50,000 housing units and approximately 23,000 retail establishments-
department stores, supermarkets, hospitals, filling stations, and other
types of stores and service establishments. All taxes directly associated
with the purchase and use of items are included in the index. Prices of
fuels and a few other items are obtained every month in all 87 locations.
Prices of most other commodities and services are collected every month in
the three largest geographic areas and every other month in other areas.
Prices of most goods and services are obtained by personal visits or
telephone calls of the Bureau’s trained representatives.
In calculating the index, price changes for the various items in each
location are averaged together with weights, which represent their
importance in the spending of the appropriate population group. Local
data are then combined to obtain a U.S. city average. For the CPI-U and
CPI-W separate indexes are also published by size of city, by region of
the country, for cross-classifications of regions and population-size
classes, and for 27 local areas. Area indexes do not measure differences
in the level of prices among cities; they only measure the average change
in prices for each area since the base period. For the C-CPI-U data are
issued only at the national level. It is important to note that the CPI-U
and CPI-W are considered final when released, but the C-CPI-U is issued in
preliminary form and subject to two annual revisions.
The index measures price change from a designed reference date. For
the CPI-U and the CPI-W the reference base is 1982-84 equals 100.0. The
reference base for the C-CPI-U is December 1999 equals 100.
An increase of 16.5 percent from the reference base, for example, is shown
as 116.5. This change can also be expressed in dollars as follows: the
price of a base period market basket of goods and services in the CPI has
risen from $10 in 1982-84 to $11.65.
For further details visit the CPI home page on the Internet at
http://www.bls.gov/cpi/ or contact our CPI Information and Analysis
Section on (202) 691-7000.
__________________________________________________________________________________________________
Note on Sampling Error in the Consumer Price Index
The CPI is a statistical estimate that is subject to sampling error
because it is based upon a sample of retail prices and not the complete
universe of all prices. BLS calculates and publishes estimates of the 1-
month, 2-month, 6-month and 12-month percent change standard errors
annually, for the CPI-U. These standard error estimates can be used to
construct confidence intervals for hypothesis testing. For example, the
estimated standard error of the 1 month percent change is 0.06 percent for
the U.S. All Items Consumer Price Index. This means that if we repeatedly
sample from the universe of all retail prices using the same methodology,
and estimate a percentage change for each sample, then 95% of these
estimates would be within 0.12 percent of the 1 month percentage change
based on all retail prices. For a 1-month change of 0.2 percent in the
All Items CPI for All Urban Consumers, we are 95 percent confident that
the actual percent change based on all retail prices would fall between
0.08 and 0.32 percent. For the latest data, including information on how
to use the estimates of standard error, see “Variance Estimates for
Changes in the Consumer Price Index, January 2005- December 2005 in the
CPI Detailed Report, February 2006. These data are available on the CPI
home page (http://www.bls.gov/cpi), using the following link
http://www.bls.gov/cpi/cpivar2006.pdf
__________________________________________________________________________________________________
Calculating Index Changes
Movements of the indexes from one month to another are usually
expressed as percent changes rather than changes in index points, because
index point changes are affected by the level of the index in relation to
its base period while percent changes are not. The example below illustrates
the computation of index point and percent changes.
Percent changes for 3-month and 6-month periods are expressed as
annual rates and are computed according to the standard formula for
compound growth rates. These data indicate what the percent change would
be if the current rate were maintained for a 12-month period.
Index Point Change
CPI 202.416
Less previous index 201.800
Equals index point change .616
Percent Change
Index point difference .616
Divided by the previous index 201.800
Equals 0.003
Results multiplied by one hundred 0.003×100
Equals percent change 0.3
__________________________________________________________________________________________________
Regions Defined
The states in the four regions shown in Tables 3 and 6 are listed below.
The Northeast–Connecticut, Maine, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, New York,
New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, and Vermont.
The Midwest–Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Michigan, Minnesota,
Missouri, Nebraska, North Dakota, Ohio, South Dakota, and Wisconsin.
The South–Alabama, Arkansas, Delaware, Florida, Georgia, Kentucky,
Louisiana, Maryland, Mississippi, North Carolina, Oklahoma, South
Carolina, Tennessee, Texas, Virginia, West Virginia, and the District of
Columbia.
The West–Alaska, Arizona, California, Colorado, Hawaii, Idaho, Montana,
Nevada, New Mexico, Oregon, Utah, Washington, and Wyoming.
__________________________________________________________________________________________________
A Note on Seasonally Adjusted and Unadjusted Data
Because price data are used for different purposes by different
groups, the Bureau of Labor Statistics publishes seasonally adjusted as
well as unadjusted changes each month.
For analyzing general price trends in the economy, seasonally
adjusted changes are usually preferred since they eliminate the effect of
changes that normally occur at the same time and in about the same
magnitude every year–such as price movements resulting from changing
climatic conditions, production cycles, model changeovers, holidays, and
sales.
The unadjusted data are of primary interest to consumers concerned
about the prices they actually pay. Unadjusted data also are used
extensively for escalation purposes. Many collective bargaining contract
agreements and pension plans, for example, tie compensation changes to the
Consumer Price Index unadjusted for seasonal variation.
Seasonal factors used in computing the seasonally adjusted indexes
are derived by the X-12-ARIMA Seasonal Adjustment Method. Seasonally
adjusted indexes and seasonal factors are computed annually. Each year,
the last 5 years of seasonally adjusted data are revised. Data from
January 2002 through December 2006 were replaced in January 2007.
Exceptions to the usual revision schedule were: the updated seasonal data
at the end of 1977 replaced data from 1967 through 1977; and, in January
2002, dependently seasonally adjusted series were revised for January 1987-
December 2001 as a result of a change in the aggregation weights for
dependently adjusted series. For further information, please see
“Aggregation of Dependently Adjusted Seasonally Adjusted Series,” in the
October 2001 issue of the CPI Detailed Report.
The seasonal movement of All items and 54 other aggregations is
derived by combining the seasonal movement of 73 selected components.
Each year the seasonal status of every series is reevaluated based upon
certain statistical criteria. If any of the 73 components change their
seasonal adjustment status from seasonally adjusted to not seasonally
adjusted, not seasonally adjusted data will be used in the aggregation of
the dependent series for the last 5 years, but the seasonally adjusted
indexes will be used before that period. Note: 44 of the 73 components
are seasonally adjusted for 2007.
Seasonally adjusted data, including the All items index levels, are
subject to revision for up to five years after their original release.
For this reason, BLS advises against the use of these data in escalation
agreements.
Effective with the calculation of the seasonal factors for 1990, the
Bureau of Labor Statistics has used an enhanced seasonal adjustment
procedure called Intervention Analysis Seasonal Adjustment for some CPI
series. Intervention Analysis Seasonal Adjustment allows for better
estimates of seasonally adjusted data. Extreme values and/or sharp
movements which might distort the seasonal pattern are estimated and
removed from the data prior to calculation of seasonal factors. Beginning
with the calculation of seasonal factors for 1996, X-12-ARIMA software was
used for Intervention Analysis Seasonal Adjustment.
In January 2007, BLS adjusted 37 series using Intervention Analysis
Seasonal Adjustment, including selected food and beverage items, fuel oil,
motor fuels, vehicles, jewelry, admission to sporting events and
educational books and supplies. For example, this procedure was used for
the Motor fuel series to offset the effects of damage to oil refineries
from Hurricane Katrina, as well as the effects of implementing new fuel
requirements in the United States.
For a complete list of Intervention Analysis Seasonal Adjustment
series and explanations, please refer to the article “Intervention
Analysis Seasonal Adjustment”, located on our website at:
http://www.bls.gov/cpi/cpisapage.htm.
For additional information on seasonal adjustment in the CPI, please
write to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, Division of Consumer Prices and
Price Indexes, Washington, DC 20212 or contact Jeff Wilson on (202) 691-
6968 by e-mail at Wilson.Jeff@bls.gov. If you have general questions
about the CPI, please call our information staff at (202) 691-7000.
Consumer Price Index (CPI) July 2007 Text
Consumer Price Index (CPI) July 2007 PDF
Consumer Price Index (CPI) Detailed Tables 1-29 July 2007
Source: Labor Department, Bureau of Labor Statistics
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